[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260540
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Mar 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning: The surface pressure
gradient, that is between a 1022 mb Atlantic Ocean high pressure
center that is near 28N65W, and comparatively lower pressure in
Colombia, will continue to induce strong winds in the south
central Caribbean Sea in general. The wind speeds will pulse to
gale-force during the late night and early morning hours, within
90 nm of the coast of Colombia, for the next few days. The sea
heights are forecast to range from 8 feet to 10 feet from 14N
southward between 70W and 80W.

Atlantic Ocean large swell event: The sea heights are ranging
range from 8 feet to 13 feet in NW swell from 30.5N northward
between 40.5W and 51W. The sea heights will range from 8 feet to
14 feet in NW swell, during the next 24 hours, from 24N northward
between 35W and 61W. The sea heights will range from 8 feet to 11
feet in NW swell from 22N northward between 35W and 50W, in 48
hours. The wave periods will range from 12 seconds to 14 seconds.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the
latest Offshore Waters Forecast, at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 07N11W, to 01N21W. The ITCZ continues from 01N21W, crossing
the Equator along 24W, to 03S35W. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is from 04N southward between 07W and 10W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 07N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough curves from the north central Gulf of Mexico,
into the NW corner of the area, and then southward into the
SW corner of the area. No significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent with the surface trough. Mostly gentle
to some moderate cyclonic winds are around the surface trough.
Moderate and fresh SE wind flow covers the central two-thirds
of the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate wind flow covers the
remainder of the area. The sea heights range from 5 feet to
6 feet in the Yucatan Channel, and within 270 nm to the west
and the northwest of the western sections of the Yucatan
Peninsula. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 5 feet in the
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. It is possible that smoke that
is from southern Mexico agricultural fires may be causing modest
limitations to visibility in the far western Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge stretching into the central Gulf from the western
Atlantic will dominate the area through Tue. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula during the evening
hours through this period. A cold front will enter the
northwestern Gulf Tue morning. The front will extend from the
Florida Big Bend area to north of Tampico, Mexico Tue night,
then will weaken from the Florida Straits to the eastern Bay
of Campeche midweek. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected
over the northwestern Gulf behind the front into Wed. Moderate
to locally fresh ENE to E winds will prevail across the Bay of
Campeche and southeastern Gulf behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES, for details about the
Gale-Force Wind Warning, that is for the areas that are within
90 nm of the coast of Colombia, during the next 48 hours or so.

Strong NE winds cover much of the central one-third of the area.
Strong SE winds are from 20N southward from 84W westward, in the
NW corner of the area. Moderate to strong winds are elsewhere from
Jamaica westward. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are in the
eastern one-third of the area. The sea heights are ranging from
7 feet to 10 feet in the southern two-thirds of the area that is
between 70W and 80W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet
in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge north of the
area and lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong
easterly winds at the central Caribbean through the middle of
next week. Winds north of Colombia will pulse to gale-force at
night through Tue night. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist
in the Windward Passage and north of Hispaniola through Mon night.
Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over the Gulf of
Honduras until Wed afternoon, occasionally reaching near gale-
force locally. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail
elsewhere across the Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES, for details about the
significant swell event that is expected during the next
48 hours or so.

The sea heights are ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet from 28N
northward from 40W eastward. The sea heights are ranging from
6 feet to 8 feet, in general from 50W eastward. Some exceptions
are ranges from 4 feet to 6 feet from 18N southward between 10W
and 40W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet between 50W
and 70W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 70W
westward. A cold front is along 31N between 47W and 60W. Strong or
faster W-to-SW winds are from 29N northward between 33W and 55W.
Mostly moderate or slower anticyclonic winds are elsewhere from
20N northward from 54W eastward. Mostly moderate NE winds are
elsewhere from the anticyclonic surface wind flow southward from
50W eastward. Mostly fresh NE winds are from 20N southward between
50W and 60W. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 28N65W. Strong
to near gale-force NE winds are within 120 nm to the north of
Hispaniola between 69W and the northern part of the Windward
Passage. Moderate or slower anticyclonic wind flow is elsewhere
from 53W westward, around the 1022 mb high pressure center.

High pressure will prevail over the western Atlantic through Tue.
A cold front is forecast to move off the US east coast on Tue
evening, then slowly track eastward north of 26N through Fri.
Moderate to fresh westerly winds and higher seas are anticipated
in the vicinity of the cold front. High pressure building in the
wake of the front will tighten the pressure gradient, generating
fresh NE to ENE winds across the Bahamas by Thu.

$$
MT/al
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