[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260827
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Mar 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between an Atlantic
high pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will
support strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea,
pulsing to gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia
through Tue night. Seas are forecast to peak around 12 to 13 ft
each morning in the vicinity of 12N75W.

Atlantic large swell event: Large NW swell associated with a
complex storm system over the north-central Atlantic has
propagated into the discussion waters. Seas greater than 12 ft are
covering the waters N of 30N between 42W and 52W, peaking near 13
ft. Seas in excess of 12 ft will spread over the waters north of
25N and east of 45W Sun and Sun night, before shifting east of 35W
early Mon. Maximum combined seas will be 17 ft near 31N40W late
today. Wave periods will average 12 to 14 seconds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 07N11W to 00N21W. The ITCZ continues from 00N21W to 03S37W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
00N to 05N between 05W and 18W, and from 00N to 05N between 23W
and 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Fresh to strong
winds are noted north of the Yucatan peninsula. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range
north of the Yucatan peninsula, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a surface ridge extending into the central Gulf
from the western Atlantic will dominate the area through Tue.
Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula during
the evening hours through this period. A cold front will enter the
northwestern Gulf Tue morning. The front will extend from the
Florida Big Bend area to north of Tampico, Mexico Tue night, then
will weaken from the Florida Straits to the eastern Bay of
Campeche midweek. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected over
the northwestern Gulf behind the front into Wed. Moderate to
locally fresh ENE to E winds will prevail across the Bay of
Campeche and southeastern Gulf behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

Strong to near gale- force winds prevail over the south central
Caribbean, reaching gale- force within 90 nm of the coast of
Colombia. Strong to near- gale winds are found in the Gulf of
Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere, except gentle
winds in the lee of Cuba. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the
south central Caribbean, and 6-8 ft over the Gulf of Honduras.
Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere, except 2-4 ft in the lee of
Cuba.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia will support
fresh to strong easterly winds at the central Caribbean through
the middle of the week. Winds north of Colombia will pulse to
gale- force at night through Tue night. Fresh to strong trade
winds will persist in the Windward Passage and north of Hispaniola
through Mon night. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over
the Gulf of Honduras until Wed afternoon, occasionally reaching
near- gale force locally. Moderate to fresh trade winds will
prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the significant swell
event expected to begin tonight.

High pressure of 1021 mb is centered near 28N65W. Light to gentle
winds are in the vicinity of the high. A cold front extends from
31N43W to 29N51W. Fresh to strong winds are noted on either side
of the front N of 30N. Moderate to fresh winds are noted W of 70W,
as well as S of 20N and W of 50W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere. Aside from the area of seas greater than 12 ft, seas of
8-12 ft prevail N of 28N between 35W and 58W. Seas of 4-6 ft are
found west of 65W, and 5-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure will prevail over the
western Atlantic through Tue. A cold front is forecast to move off
the US east coast on Tue evening, then slowly track eastward
north of 26N through Fri. Moderate to fresh westerly winds and
higher seas are anticipated in the vicinity of the cold front.
High pressure building in the wake of the front will tighten the
pressure gradient, generating fresh NE to ENE winds across the
Bahamas by Thu.

$$
AL
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