[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252153
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Mar 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between an Atlantic high
pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to
induce strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, pulsing
to gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia through
Mon night. Seas are forecast to peak around 12 to 13 ft each
morning in the vicinity of 12N75W.

Atlantic large swell event: Large NW swell associated with a
complex storm system over the north-central Atlantic will
propagate south of 30N tonight between 40W and 55W. Swell in
excess of 12 ft will spread over the waters north of 25N and east
of 45W Sun and Sun night, before shifting east of 35W early Mon.
Maximum combined seas will be 17 ft near 31N40W late Sun. Wave
periods will average 12 to 14 seconds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near the border
of Guinea-Bissau and Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 03N30W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N30W to 01S30W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 00N to 05N and E of 28W. Scattered
showers are noted from 00N to 03N between 27W and 31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from southwest Louisiana to south
Texas. A surface trough extends from southeast Louisiana to
27N94W. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends from the western
Atlantic to the north-central Gulf. Recent buoy observations and
satellite-derived wind data indicate moderate to fresh SE to S
winds across the south-central Gulf, on the periphery of the
ridge, with 4 to 6 ft combined seas. Light and variable breezes
are noted over the northwest Gulf, with 2 to 4 ft combined seas.
Moderate SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted elsewhere. No
significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted. Smoke from
agricultural fires over southern Mexico may be causing modest
limitations to visibility over the far western Gulf.

For the forecast, the weak stationary front over the far northwest
Gulf should gradually dissipate tonight. Therefore, a surface
ridge stretching into the central Gulf from the western Atlantic
should continue to dominate the area through Tue. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula during the evening
hours through this period. A cold front will enter the
northwestern Gulf Tue morning, then move farther southeast and
reach from the Florida Big Bend area to north of Tampico, Mexico
by Tue night. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected at the
northwestern Gulf behind the front into Wed. By late Wed night or
Thu morning, it will reach from the Florida Straits to the eastern
Bay of Campeche while weakening. Moderate with locally fresh ENE
to E winds will prevail across the Bay of Campeche and
southeastern Gulf behind this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated strong to near-
gale force winds within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia, northwest
of Cartagena. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted elsewhere over
the south- central Caribbean, with 7 to 9 ft seas. Moderate to
fresh E to SE winds are noted elsewhere over the Caribbean and
Gulf of Honduras, with 5 to 7 ft seas, except 3 to 5 ft seas north
of 18N and east of 85W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge near 25N and lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh
to strong easterly winds at the central Caribbean Sea through
midweek next week. These winds north of Colombia are expected to
pulse between near-gale and gale-force at night through Tue night.
Easterly fresh to strong winds will persist in the Windward
Passage and north of Hispaniola through Mon night. In addition,
fresh to strong with locally near-gale trade winds will prevail
over the Gulf of Honduras until Wed afternoon. Moderate to fresh
trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the significant swell
event expected to begin tonight.

A broad ridge extends east-to-west across the waters north of 20N,
anchored by 1023 mb high pressure near 28N65W. A ship reported 20
kt winds out of the W-NW and combined seas to 10 ft near 30N57W,
between the ridge and a cold front approaching this area from the
north. NW swell ahead of the front is supporting 8 to 10 ft
combined seas as far south as 28N between 45W and 60W. Buoys
report moderate to maybe fresh SW winds off northeast Florida, on
the western periphery of the ridge. Generally light breezes are
noted along the ridge. Moderate NE winds are noted elsewhere, with
5 to 7 ft seas mostly in NW swell mixed with shorter period NE
swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge associated with
a 1023 mb high near 28N65W will prevail over the western Atlantic
through Tue. A cold front is forecast to move off the US east
coast on Tue evening, then slowly track eastward north of 26N
through Fri. Moderate to fresh westerly winds and higher seas are
anticipated in the vicinity of the cold front. This front should
get reinforce by a high moving off the US Mid-Atlantic coast on
Thu, generating fresh NE to ENE winds across the Bahamas.

$$
Christensen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net