[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231743
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Mar 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between an Atlantic ridge
north of Puerto Rico near 22N64W and lower pressure over
northwestern Colombia will continue to support strong winds over
the south-central Caribbean Sea through early next week. These
winds are expected to peak at near-gale to gale force during the
night time hours off the coast of Colombia through Mon night.
Seas will peak at 10 to 12 ft under the strongest winds. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the African coast near
the Guinea-Bissau/Guinea border, then extends southwestward to
04N21W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen
near and south of these features from 01N to 08N between Sierra
Leone/Liberia coast and 24W. An ITCZ continues westward from
04N21W across 04N36W to north of Belem, Brazil near 03N48W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed up to 70 nm along either
side of the ITCZ west of 24W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extending from northern Florida to near Tampico,
Mexico dominates the entire Gulf. Fresh with locally strong
southerly winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen at the northwestern
Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE winds with 5 to 6 ft seas are present
at the west-central and central Gulf, and Bay of Campeche.
Moderate SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of
the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure over the southeastern United States
will shift eastward into the Atlantic through Sat, allowing for
primarily moderate to fresh winds over much of the Gulf, except
for fresh to strong SE winds in the western Gulf through Fri.
Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off northwestern Yucatan
during the evening through the next few days. A weak cold front is
forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf by early Sat and move
southeastward before dissipating Sat night. Moderate to locally
fresh return flow will then dominate the basin through Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

The southwestern portion of a stationary front reaches
southwestward from the southeast Bahamas across central Cuba to
west of the Cayman Islands. Patchy showers are seen up to 40 nm
along either side of this feature. A trade-wind disturbance is
causing scattered showers at the eastern basin, including the
Leeward Islands. Otherwise, the Atlantic ridge is supporting a
trade-wind pattern for much of the basin. Fresh to strong NE to
ENE winds and seas of 9 to 11 ft are found at the south-central
basin. Fresh with locally strong ENE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft
are evident at the north-central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E
winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, other than the south-central basin, fresh
trades will prevail elsewhere in the basin through the weekend.
Pulsing strong winds will develop in the Windward Passage and
south of Hispaniola beginning this evening and persist through the
weekend. Strong trade winds will develop over the Gulf of
Honduras Fri night and continue into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from the eastern Azores to
31N49W, then continues as a stationary front to the southwest
Bahamas. Scattered showers are occurring up to 40 nm northwest,
and 80 nm southeast of this boundary. A trade-wind disturbance is
causing similar conditions east of the Lesser Antilles from 15N
to 18N between 50W and 58W. A surface trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the coast of
Amapa State, Brazil. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Fresh to strong NE winds with 9 to 11 seas in large NNE swell are
noted up to 350 nm behind the stationary front, east of 70W.
Between the Bahamas and 70W, moderate with locally fresh NE to
ENE winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft are present from the stationary
front to 28N. Light to gentle winds with 4 to 6 ft seas exist east
of northern Florida north of 28N and west of 70W. A 1023 mb high
at the central Atlantic near 27N39W is promoting light to gentle
winds and 4 to 7 ft seas in moderate northerly swell north of 20N
between 28W and the stationary front/southeast Bahamas. Near the
Canary Islands, moderate to locally fresh WNW to N to NNE winds
and 6 to 9 ft seas are found north of 19N between the African
coast and 28W. Farther southwest, gentle to moderate NE to E
trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present from 05N to 20N between
28W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds with 3 to 5 ft
seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the northeastern portion of the
stationary front will transition back to a cold front this
afternoon and move southeastward through Thu night, reaching from
near 25N55W to 23N63W early Fri before dissipating. Fresh to
strong NE winds and high seas will continue behind this front
north of 26N and east of 64W through tonight. High pressure will
settle in near 29N66W late Fri, with a ridge extending westward
to central Florida. Fresh southerly winds are expected offshore
northeast Florida Fri night and last into Sat night as a weak
boundary moves just offshore southeastern Georgia and northeast
Florida.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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