[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Mar 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between an Atlantic high
pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to
induce strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with
pulsing near gale to minimal gale-force winds at night near the
coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Seas will peak
around 12 ft each morning around sunrise in the vicinity of
11N76W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details
on the Gale Warning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the border of
Guinea-Bissau and Guinea to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W
to 03N25W to 05NN36W to 04N48W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 10W and 30W,
and from 02N to 07N between 33W and 53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure extends from east to west just north of the basin
across the SE United States. Moderate to fresh SE return flow and
seas of 4-7 ft are across the Gulf west of 90W, with mainly
moderate E-SE winds and 3-6 ft seas east of 90W, except 1-3 ft in
the NE Gulf. Some haze is reported across the basin due to
agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico. Otherwise, a
mid to upper level anticyclone is over the Gulf of Mexico
currently, leading to subsidence and dry conditions.

For the forecast, high pressure over the southeastern United
States will shift eastward into the Atlantic through Sat, allowing
for primarily moderate to fresh winds, except for fresh to strong
SE winds in the western Gulf through Fri. The western extension
of the high pressure will extend westward to the eastern Gulf
through Mon. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off NW Yucatan
during the evening through the next few days. A weak cold front is
forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters by early Sat and move
southeastward before dissipating Sat night. Moderate to locally
fresh return flow will then dominate the basin through Mon.
Another cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf on Mon and
stall. The front will then begin to move southeastward starting
late Mon night in response to high pressure that will build
southward behind it. It should reach from northern florida to the
central Gulf and to inland NE Mexico by late Tue. Moderate to
fresh NE-E winds will follow in behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

The mid to upper level anticyclonic flow over the Gulf of Mexico
extends southeastward and covers the western two-thirds of the
Caribbean Sea. As a result, no significant areas of precipitation
are noted. Outside of the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong
easterly winds are affecting the waters of the central Caribbean,
including through the Windward Passage, along with seas of 7-10
ft. Easterly trade winds are moderate to fresh elsewhere. Seas are
4-7 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 3-6 ft in the western
Caribbean.

For the forecast, the gradient between an Atlantic high pressure
ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to induce
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with pulsing
near gale to minimal gale-force winds at night near the coast of
Colombia through the forecast period. Fresh trades will prevail
elsewhere through the weekend. Pulsing strong winds will develop
in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola beginning this
evening and persist through the weekend. Strong trade winds will
develop over the Gulf of Honduras Fri night and continue into
early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N49W to across the Turks and
Caicos Islands to Cuba near 22N77W. Some showers are possible near
the front. Strong NE winds are west of the front north of 27N to
63W per earlier ASCAT scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh NE-E
winds are south fo 27N and west of the front, with gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds N of 27N and elsewhere west of the
front. SEas of 8-13 ft in NE swell is west of the front to 70W,
with 4-7 ft seas elsewhere west of the front.

In the central and eastern Atlantic, a ridge extends SW from
31N30W to 22N65W. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the waters
east of the front under the ridge, except fresh to locally strong
north of 20N and east of 28W due to a locally tight pressure
gradient with weak low pressure noted off the coast of Africa near
22N19W. For seas, NW swell is supporting 7-10 ft heights across
the area of fresh to strong winds, with 5-7 ft heights in
primarily N-NE swell elsewhere, except 4-6 ft south of 20N and
east of 30W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the northern portion of the
stationary front will transition back to a cold front tonight and
move southeastward, reaching from 25N55W to 23N63W early Fri
before dissipating. Fresh to strong northeast winds and high seas
will continue behind this front north of 26N and east of 64W
through tonight. High pressure will settle in near 29N66W late
Fri, with an east to west ridge extending westward to central
Florida. Fresh southerly winds are expected offshore NE Florida
Fri night and last into Sat night as a weak frontal boundary moves
just offshore southeastern Georgia and NE Florida. The high
pressure will then be nudged southward through late Tue as a cold
front approaches 31N.

$$
Lewitsky
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