[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231044
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Mar 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between an Atlantic high
pressure ridge extending to north of Puerto Rico and lower
pressure over Colombia will continue to support strong winds over
the south-central Caribbean Sea, with winds pulsing to gale force
nightly near the coast of Colombia through Sat night. Seas will
peak around 12-13 ft each morning around sunrise in the vicinity
of 11N76W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
details on the Gale Warning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N26W to 02N36W. The ITCZ continues
from 02N36W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is observed from 01N to 07N between 05W and 18W, from
01N to 05N between 18W and 30W, and from 02N to 05N between 42W
and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid- to upper-level anticyclone is over the Gulf of Mexico
currently, leading to subsidence and dry conditions. At the
surface, high pressure ridging extends from Bermuda to the coast
of Georgia and into the Gulf of Mexico. This feature, combined
with lower pressure over Mexico, is supporting a moderate pressure
gradient in the western Gulf. West of 90W, winds are fresh from
the SE with 5-7 ft seas. A weakening diurnal surface trough over
the eastern Bay of Campeche is supporting fresh E winds in the
area. Seas are 4-6 ft in the Bay of Campeche as a result. Easterly
winds are fresh in the Florida Straits and SE Gulf of Mexico with
4-6 ft seas. In the NE Gulf, winds are gentle and seas are
slight.

For the forecast, high pressure along the coast of Georgia will
shift E into the Atlantic through Sat, allowing for primarily
moderate to fresh winds, except for fresh to strong SE winds in
the western Gulf through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will also
pulse off NW Yucatan during the evening through the next few days.
A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters by
early Sat and move southeastward before dissipating Sat night.
Moderate to locally fresh return flow will then dominate the basin
through Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

The mid-level anticyclonic flow over the Gulf of Mexico extends
southeastward and covers the western two-thirds of the Caribbean
Sea. As a result, no significant areas of precipitation are noted.
Outside of the gale warning area, fresh to strong easterly winds
are affecting the waters of the central Caribbean, along with seas
of 7-10 ft. Easterly trade winds are fresh in the eastern
Caribbean with 5-7 ft seas. Fresh NE to E winds are occurring in
the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba. Moderate to fresh E
winds prevail elsewhere across the NW Caribbean with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, the gradient between an Atlantic high pressure
ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to induce
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with pulsing
near gale to minimal gale force winds at night near the coast of
Colombia through the forecast period. Fresh trades will prevail
elsewhere through the weekend. Pulsing strong winds will persist
in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through the
weekend. Strong trade winds will develop over the Gulf of Honduras
late Fri and persist through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N51W to 25N63W, where it continues as
a stationary front to 23N72W. Strong NE winds are behind the
front, extending W to 63W, and N of 28N. Seas are 10-12 ft in
this area. Behind the front from 25N to 28N and E of 69W, fresh NE
winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft prevail. High pressure ridging
dominates north of 27N and west of 71W, where winds are gentle and
seas are 5-7 ft. Farther south, fresh NE to E winds prevail
across the Bahamas, Old Bahama Channel, Straits of Florida and
Windward Passage.

In the central Atlantic, a ridge extends SW from a 1024 mb high
pressure centered near 29N42W to near 23N64W. Winds are light to
gentle within the ridge with 5-7 ft seas. South of the ridge,
winds increase to moderate to locally fresh from the ENE,
generally from 14N to 22N in the tropical Atlantic, with 6-8 ft
seas. In the eastern Atlantic a 1008 mb low centered near 23N19W
is supporting fresh to locally strong winds and 8-10 ft seas
between the Canary Islands and 20N. Winds and seas are generally
moderate elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending from
30N55W to 25N63W will continue moving SE through tonight, and
reach from 25N55W to 23N63W early Fri before dissipating. Fresh to
strong NE winds and high seas will continue behind this front
north of 26N and east of 64W through tonight. High pressure will
build in along 29N N of the old boundary Fri and persist through
the weekend.

$$
Hagen
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