[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Mar 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between an Atlantic high
pressure ridge extending along 24N-25N and lower pressure over
Colombia will continue to support strong winds over the south-
central Caribbean Sea, with winds pulsing to gale force nightly
near the coast of Colombia through Fri night. Seas will peak
around 12-13 ft each morning around sunrise in the vicinity of
11N76W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and Offshore
Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details on the Gale Warning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N12W to 01N38W. The ITCZ continues from
01N38W to the equator at 50W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 01N to 04N, between 20W and 28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico with a 1025 mb high
analyzed near the Florida Big Bend area. This feature, combined
with lower pressure over Mexico, is supporting a moderate
pressure gradient in the western Gulf. West of 90W, winds are
moderate to fresh from the SE with 5-7 ft seas. A surface trough
across the Yucatan Peninsula is supporting fresh E-NE winds
offshore Merida, Mexico. Seas are 4-6 ft in the Bay of Campeche
as a result. Easterly winds are fresh in the Florida Straits
with 4-6 ft seas. Closer the high-pressure center in the NE
Gulf, winds are gentle and seas are slight.

For the forecast, high pressure over the SE United States will
shift E into the Atlantic through Sat, allowing for primarily
moderate to fresh winds, except for fresh to strong SE winds in
the western Gulf tonight through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will
also pulse off the NW Yucatan during the evening through the
next few days. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW
Gulf waters by early Sat and move southeastward before
dissipating Sat night. Moderate to locally fresh return flow
will then dominate the basin through Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

Outside of the gale warning area, fresh to strong easterly winds
are affecting the waters of the central Caribbean, along with
seas of 7-10 ft. Easterly trade winds are fresh in the eastern
Caribbean with 5-7 ft seas. Easterly winds are moderate to fresh
in the NW Caribbean with 4-6 ft seas. A few showers are noted in
the lee of central Cuba, in an area of fresh to strong NE winds.

For the forecast, the gradient between an Atlantic high-pressure
ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to induce
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with pulsing
near gale to minimal gale force winds at night near the coast of
Colombia through the forecast period. Fresh trades will prevail
elsewhere through the weekend. Pulsing strong winds will develop
in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola beginning this
evening. Strong trade winds will develop over the Gulf of
Honduras late Fri and persist through early next week. Large
trade wind swell over the Tropical N Atlantic waters will
subside tonight through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N54W to 25N66W, where it continues
as a stationary front to the SE Bahamas. A recent scatterometer
pass found fresh to strong NE winds behind the front with gentle
to moderate winds ahead of the front. Behind the front, seas are
10-12 ft north of 26N and 8-10 ft south of 26N. West of 70W,
high pressure dominates with moderate E-SE winds and 5-7 ft seas.

In the central Atlantic, a ridge extends SW from a 1024 mb high
pressure centered near 28N41W. Winds are light within the ridge
with 5-7 ft seas. South of the ridge winds increase to moderate
from the ENE with 6-8 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic a 1010 mb
low centered near 24N18W is supporting fresh to strong winds and
8-10 ft seas between the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. Winds
and seas are generally moderate elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will continue
moving SE through Thu night, and reach from 25N55W to 24N63W
early Fri before dissipating. Fresh to strong NE winds and high
seas will continue behind this front north of 26N and east of
65W through Thu night. High pressure will build in along 29N N
of the old boundary Fri and persist through the weekend.

$$
Flynn
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