[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221037
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Mar 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over the south-
central Caribbean will continue to support strong trades during
the next several days, pulsing to gale-force at night offshore
Colombia through the forecast period. Seas will peak around 12
ft each morning around sunrise in the vicinity of 11N76W. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details
on the Gale Warning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W
to 02N29W. No ITCZ is present in the Atlantic basin at the moment.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 00N to
06N between 05W and 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging from the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast and across
the southeastern U.S. is the main feature in the Gulf of Mexico.
In the western Gulf, winds are fresh from the SE. Recent buoy and
altimeter observations indicate seas are 6-9 ft over the western
Gulf, west of 93W. A surface trough over the eastern Bay of
Campeche is supporting fresh to strong NE winds and 5-7 ft seas
there. In the eastern Gulf, winds are gentle to moderate from the
E-SE with slight seas. The exception is in the Florida Straits,
where a moderate to fresh easterly breeze is building 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure will persist over the SE United
States through Fri, allowing for primarily moderate to fresh
winds, except for fresh to strong SE winds in the western Gulf
late tonight through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse
off NW Yucatan during the evening through the next few days. A
weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters late Fri
and move eastward while losing strength.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower
pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting strong to gale
force NE to E winds in the south-central Caribbean. Fresh NE to E
winds are occurring elsewhere across the Caribbean Sea. Seas are
generally 6-8 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean, reaching
9-14 ft near the strongest winds in the Colombian Basin. Seas of 4
to 5 ft prevail over the NW basin, except up to 6 ft in the Gulf
of Honduras.

For the forecast, the gradient between an Atlantic high pressure
ridge extending north of Puerto Rico and lower pressure over
northern South America will continue to cause strong winds over
the south-central Caribbean Sea, with winds pulsing to gale force
at night near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period.
Fresh trades will prevail elsewhere through the weekend. Pulsing
strong winds will develop in the Windward Passage and south of
Hispaniola beginning late today. Strong trade winds will develop
over the Gulf of Honduras late Fri and persist through the
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N61W to the SE Bahamas near 22N73W.
Behind the front, winds are fresh from the NE with 7-10 ft seas,
except strong NE winds are occurring north of 29.5N behind the
front W to 67W. Seas are 9 to 11 ft in the strong wind area.
Southeast the front, moderate S to SW winds are likely occurring
north of 27N, while light to gentle winds prevail south of 27N
near a surface ridge. The surface ridge extends WSW from a 1025 mb
high pressure centered near 30N43W to 23N69W. Light to gentle
winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail within a few hundred nm of the
surface ridge axis. Fresh NE winds are noted over the Straits of
Florida and Old Bahama Channel, becoming fresh E to the north of
Hispaniola.

Over the tropical Atlantic, to the south of the aforementioned
ridge axis, fresh ENE trade winds prevail from 12N to 22N between
35W and 60W with seas 8 to 9 ft. Fresh NE winds with similar seas
also extend over much of the NE Atlantic from southern Morocco
and northern Western Sahara through the Canary Islands
southwestward to near 20N35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong NNE to NE winds and
rough seas will continue behind the western Atlantic cold front
north of 27N as it moves southeastward through Thu. The front
will reach from near 29N55W to 22N73W early Thu. High pressure
ridging will build in Fri across the area and persist through the
weekend.

$$
Hagen
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