[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Mar 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over the south-
central Caribbean will continue to support strong trades during
the next several days, pulsing to gale-force at night offshore
Colombia through the forecast period. Seas will peak around 12
ft each morning around sunrise in the vicinity of 11N76W.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and Offshore
Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details on the Gale Warning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal boarder of Liberia
and Sierra Leone near 07N11W to 03N28W. No ITCZ is present in
the Atlantic basin. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
observed from 01N to 06N, between 11W and 24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging from the Mid-Atlantic across the
southeastern U.S. is the main feature in the Gulf of Mexico. In
the western Gulf, winds are fresh from the SE with 6-9 ft seas
west of 93W. A surface trough along the Yucatan Peninsula is
supporting strong NE winds and 5-7 ft seas in the eastern Bay of
Campeche. In the eastern Gulf, winds are gentle to moderate from
the E-SE with slight seas. The exception is in the Florida
Straits, where a fresh easterly breeze is building 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure will persist over the SE United
States through Fri, allowing for primarily moderate to fresh
winds, except for fresh to strong SE winds in the western Gulf
tonight, and again Wed night through Fri. Fresh to strong winds
will also pulse off NW Yucatan during the evening through the
next few days. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW
Gulf waters late Fri and move eastward while losing strength.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower
pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting strong to gale
force E-NE winds in the south-central Caribbean. Fresh NE winds
are noted in the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong trades are
observed throughout the eastern Caribbean. Seas are generally 6-
8 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean, reaching 9-12 ft near
the strongest winds in the Colombian Basin. Conditions are more
favorable in the NW basin, with moderate to fresh easterly wind
and 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, the gradient between an Atlantic high pressure
ridge extending north of Puerto Rico and lower pressure over
northern South America will continue to cause strong winds over
the south-central Caribbean Sea, with winds pulsing to gale
force at night near the coast of Colombia through the forecast
period. Fresh trades will prevail elsewhere through the weekend.
Pulsing strong winds will develop in the Windward Passage and
south of Hispaniola beginning Wed. Strong trade winds will
develop over the Gulf of Honduras late Fri and persist through
the weekend. Large trade wind swell will continue to affect the
Tropical N Atlantic waters through tonight before subsiding Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N64W to the Turks and Caicos near
22N73W. Behind the front, winds are moderate to fresh from the
NE with 6-10 ft seas. Ahead of the front, winds are gentle to
moderate from the SE-E with 4-6 ft seas. In the central
Atlantic, a 1028 mb high is centered near 30N44W. Winds are
gentle near the high and along a ridge that extends ESE towards
the SE Bahamas. South of the ridge, winds gradually increase,
becoming a fresh easterly breeze south of 20N. Outside of 4-6 ft
seas within the ridge axis, Seas are generally 6-9 ft in the
central Atlantic, peaking near 17N47W. In the eastern Atlantic,
fresh to strong NE winds are observed near the Canary Islands
with moderate to fresh NE winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-9
ft range.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N64W
to the SE Bahamas. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas
will continue behind this front north of 27N as it moves
southeastward through Thu. The front will reach from near 31N59W
to 23N73W Wed morning and from near 29N55W to 23N73W early Thu.
High pressure ridging will build in Fri across the area and
persist through the weekend.

$$
Flynn
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