[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212114
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Mar 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over the south-
central Caribbean will continue to support strong trades during
the next several days, pulsing to gale-force at night offshore
Colombia through the forecast period. Seas will peak around 12 ft
each morning around sunrise in the vicinity of 11N76W.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details
on the Gale Warning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 05N15W to 02N25W. No ITCZ is present in the
Atlantic basin. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
from 01N to 07N between 12W and 24W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 00N to 07N between 30W and 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge is north of the basin extending across the
southeastern U.S. Fresh to strong SE return flow is in the west-
central and NW Gulf per earlier ASCAT scatterometer data, and
recent in-situ observations. Seas are 5 to 8 ft there. Moderate
to fresh return flow along with 3 to 6 ft seas are across the
remainder of the waters west of 90W, with gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow and 2 to 4 ft seas east of 90W. Some haze is
noted over the basin due to agricultural fires over Central
America.

For the forecast, high pressure will persist over the SE United
States through the work week, allowing for primarily moderate to
fresh winds, except for fresh to strong SE winds in the western
Gulf tonight, and again Wed night through early Fri. Fresh to
strong winds will also pulse off NW Yucatan during the evening
through the next several days. A weak cold front is forecast to
enter the NW Gulf waters late Fri and move eastward while losing
strength.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a
developing Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

A surface trough, the remnants of an old front, extends from
eastern Cuba near 21N78W to eastern Honduras near 15N84W. Some
isolated to widely scattered showers are possible near the trough.
Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are west of the trough, with seas of
3 to 7 ft, highest west of 83W. Fresh to strong trades are
southeast of the trough to 70W, with moderate to fresh trades east
of 70W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft southeast of the trough, except 8 to 11
ft in the south-central portion.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds are found
in the NW Caribbean, nightly pulsing to near strong speeds in the
lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras over the next few days. Strong
trades will persist over the south-central Caribbean during the
next several days, pulsing to gale force at night offshore
Colombia through the forecast period. Fresh NE to E winds will
prevail across the eastern and north-central Caribbean, including
the Atlantic Passages through Wed. Large trade wind swell will
continue to affect the Tropical N Atlantic waters through tonight
before subsiding Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from just east of Bermuda through 31N65W to
24.5N72W then is stationary to eastern Cuba near 21N77W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible near the front,
mainly 180 nm southeast of it. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are
north of about 28N and west of the front to 74W, with moderate to
fresh winds elsewhere west of the front. Seas are 7 to 11 ft north
of 27N and west of the front in NE swell, mixed with longer period
SE swell.

High pressure of 1028 mb is east of the front, centered near
31N45W. A ridge extends from the high to 23N70W. Gentle to
moderate return flow is under the ridge, along with 4 to 7 ft seas
in mixed SE and NW swell. Mainly moderate to fresh trades are
southeast and south of the high, locally strong from 22N to 30N
between the Canary Islands and 30W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in mixed
swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and
rough seas will continue behind the front north of 27N as it
moves southeastward through Thu. The front will reach from near
31N60W to 23N73W Wed morning and from near 29N55W to 23N73W early
Thu. High pressure ridging will build in Fri along 28N.

$$
Lewitsky
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