[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Mar 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning:

The wind speeds will pulse to gale-force off the coast of Colombia,
during the late night and morningtime hours, during the next
several days. The current frontal boundary that has been reaching
the NW Caribbean Sea will weakening today. The surface pressure
gradient, that is between central Atlantic Ocean high pressure,
and comparatively lower pressures that are in the SW Caribbean
Sea, will tighten. Expect strong wind speeds in the south central
Caribbean Sea, in general. The sea heights will reach 12 feet
near the gale force winds. Please, read the latest High Seas
Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
more details. Near gale-force NE winds are within 80 nm of the
coast of Colombia between 73W and 76W. Strong to near gale-force
NE winds are elsewhere within 150 nm of the coast of Colombia
between 72W and 77W. Strong NE winds are in the remainder of the
area that is within 270 nm to the north of the coast of Colombia.
Fresh to strong NE winds are in the rest of the Caribbean Sea.
The sea heights are ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet in the areas of
the near gale-force winds. The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet
to 8 feet elsewhere in the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 03N20W, and to 01N31W. No ITCZ is present,
based on the current wind flow. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 08N southward from 40W
eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from
10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through NW Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind flow has been
covering much of the Gulf of Mexico. Strong SE winds have been
within 135 nm of the coasts of Mexico and Texas. The sea heights
have been ranging from 7 feet to 8 feet within 180 nm of the coast
of Mexico, in the area of the strong SE winds. The sea heights are
ranging from 6 feet to 7 feet in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico
that is from 90W westward. The sea heights have been ranging from
4 feet to 6 feet in the southern half of the area that is from 90W
eastward, and from 2 feet to 4 feet in the northern half of the
area that is from 90W eastward.

High pressure will persist over the SE United States through the
work week, allowing for primarily moderate to fresh winds, except
for fresh to strong SE winds in the western Gulf through tonight,
and again Wed night through early Fri. Fresh to strong winds will
also pulse off NW Yucatan during the evening through the next
several days. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf
waters late Fri and move eastward while losing strength.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
ongoing warning for Gale-Force Winds.

A surface trough passes through SE Cuba, to the north central
coast of Honduras. The sea heights have been ranging from 8 feet
to 10 feet within 250 nm to the NW of the surface trough. The sea
heights have been ranging from 4 feet to 7 feet in the eastern
one-third of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights have been ranging
from 3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

A surface trough extends from eastern Cuba to the northern coast
of Honduras. Fresh NNE winds will persist in the Yucatan Channel
and far northwestern Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras
through this morning. Marine conditions will improve later this
morning. Strong trades will persist over the south- central
Caribbean during the next several days, pulsing to gale force at
night offshore Colombia through the forecast period. Fresh NE to E
winds will prevail across the eastern and north- central
Caribbean, including the Atlantic Passages through Wed. Large
trade wind swell will continue to affect the Tropical N Atlantic
waters through tonight before subsiding Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N67W 27N70W, to the Bahamas near
23N75W, to Cuba near 21N77W. A surface trough continues from
21N77W, toward the north central coast of Honduras. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm to 180 nm to
the east of the cold front from 23N northward. The same type of
precipitation is within 60 nm to 120 nm to the east of the cold
front and surface trough in the Atlantic Basin. Isolated moderate
to locally strong also is within 135 nm to the west of the cold
front in the Bahamas. The 24-hour rainfall total in inches, ending
at 21/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLE, is 0.48 in Bermuda. The sea heights are
ranging from 4 feet to 7 feet from 60W westward. Fresh to strong
NE winds are within 270 nm to the northwest of the cold front, and
fresh to strong southerly winds are within 100 nm to the east of
the cold front from 25N northward.

A 1030 mb high pressure center is near 31N44W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 60W
eastward. The sea heights are ranging from 7 feet to 9 feet
within 500 nm to 700 nm on either side of the line 23N24W 17N36W
16N60W. The sea heights are ranging from 5 feet to 7 feet
elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean from 60W eastward. Mostly fresh to
some strong NE winds are to the south of the line 31N35W 26N46W
22N60W. The exception is for moderate to strong NE winds from 20W
eastward, and moderate to strong anticyclonic winds elsewhere from
65W eastward.

A cold front extends from 31N67W to eastern Cuba. Fresh to strong
N to NE winds and rough seas will continue behind this front
north of 27N as it moves southeastward through Thu. The front will
reach from near 31N63W to 23N75W this evening and from near
29N55W to 23N73W early Thu. High pressure ridging will build in
Fri along 28N.

$$
MT/sd
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