[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221705
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Mar 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1655 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over the south-
central Caribbean will continue to support strong to near gale
force trades during the next several days, pulsing to gale-force
at night offshore Colombia through the forecast period. Seas will
peak around 12-13 ft each morning around sunrise in the vicinity
of 11N76W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details
on the Gale Warning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 03N24W to 01N35W. The ITCZ extends from
01N35W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is present south
of 08N and east of 25W. Similar convection is seen from 02N to 05N
and between 31W and 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico and maintains fairly
tranquil weather conditions as it suppresses the development of
deep convection. Moderate to locally strong SE winds and seas of
5-8 ft are prevalent west of 90W. Gentle to moderate E-SE winds
and 3-6 ft seas are found elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will persist over the SE United States
through Fri, allowing for primarily moderate to fresh winds,
except for fresh to strong SE winds in the western Gulf late
tonight through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off
NW Yucatan during the evening through the next few days. A weak
cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters late Fri and
move eastward through Sat before dissipating. Moderate to locally
fresh return flow will then dominate the basin through Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

Outside of the gale warning area, fresh to locally strong easterly
winds are affecting the waters of the north-central Caribbean,
along with seas of 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are
noted in the eastern and NW Caribbean. Seas are 5-8 ft in the
eastern Caribbean and 3-6 ft in the NW Caribbean. A few showers
are noted near the Cayman Islands and south of western Cuba, while
deep convection is absent in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the gradient between an Atlantic high pressure ridge
extending 24N-25N and lower pressure over Colombia will continue
to induce strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with
winds pulsing to gale force at night near the coast of Colombia
through the forecast period. Fresh trades will prevail elsewhere
through the weekend. Pulsing strong winds will develop in the
Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola beginning late today.
Strong trade winds will develop over the Gulf of Honduras late Fri
and persist through the weekend. Large trade wind swell over the
Tropical N Atlantic waters will subside tonight through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N58W to 24N69W, where it transitions
into a stationary front to NE Cuba near 21N75W. A few showers are
noted ahead of the frontal boundary, mainly within 120 nm. Fresh
to strong NE winds are found behind the frontal boundary, with the
strongest winds occurring north of 28N and east of 69W. Seas of
8-12 ft are evident behind the cold front to 75W. The rest of the
SW Atlantic is dominated by a 1033 mb high pressure well north of
the region, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions,
gentle to moderate E-SE winds and 6-8 ft seas.

A 1025 mb high pressure in the central Atlantic is the dominant
features patrolling the remainder of the tropical Atlantic.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 7-10 ft prevail south
of 22N and west of 30W. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and a low pressure system off Western Sahara support fresh to
locally strong NE winds north of 23N and east of 30W. Seas in
these waters are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N59W to
the SE Bahamas, where it has become stationary. Fresh to strong
NNE to NE winds and rough seas will continue behind this front
north of 27N as the north portion moves southeastward through Fri.
High pressure will build in along 29N Fri and persist through the
weekend.

$$
DELGADO
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