[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Mar 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: A cold front
extends from 31N53W to the Turks and Caicos Islands to eastern
Cuba. Overnight satellite derived wind data show gale force
northerly winds just behind the front over the central Bahamas.
The front will continue to move SE and reach from near 30N55W to
the Windward Passage in the next few hours, and from 20N55W
through the northern Leeward Islands by Fri morning. Strong to
gale-force NW winds will shift eastward immediately behind the
front and through the SE waters through tonight. Large N swell
will accompany this front, with seas of 12 ft or greater spreading
from 26N to 22N and E of 72W by tonight. At this time, peak seas
of 15-16 ft are along 31N between 65W and 70W. Seas behind the
front are not expected to subside below 12 ft until Sun as the
front moves E of 35W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details on these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa
near 08.5N13W then continues SW to near 07N16W. The ITCZ extends
from 07N16W to 02N35W to the Amazon Basin near 01N51W. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted S of 04N between 28W and
50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from the
equator to 07.5N and E of 28W to 15W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure across the eastern U.S. extends SW across the Gulf
waters and the State of Florida, where a drier air mass is in
place. A cold front that has moved across the Gulf in the past few
days is beginning to stall across the NW Caribbean along 20N. The
pressure gradient to the north is producing fresh NE to E winds
across the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf to 90W, while light
winds are found to the N. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across this area.
Return flow has developed across the western Gulf overnight, with
fresh SE winds across the SW Gulf and fresh to locally strong SE
to S winds across the NW Gulf. Seas are 5 to 7 ft and building
across this portions of the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure across the eastern U.S will shift
E through the weekend. Return flow has developed across the W
Gulf and will become fresh to strong early today and spread to
the entire Gulf tonight, ahead of the next cold front. This front
will move into the NW Gulf Fri morning, reaching from Apalachee
Bay, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche Sat morning. Brief
gale-force N winds are expected behind the front offshore of the
upper Mexican waters Fri afternoon, shifting to offshore Veracruz
Fri night. The front will then stall and weaken across the SE
Gulf Sat and Sun, and sink slowly SE over the Yucatan Channel Mon
night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends across far eastern Cuba across the NW
Caribbean to near the northern border of Belize. Fresh to strong
NE winds are seen per overnight scatterometer data to the N of
the front, including the Yucatan Channel. Seas are 5 to 8 ft
across this area. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are along the frontal boundary. Multi-layer clouds with embedded
showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted over eastern
Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Windward Passage and Hispaniola
ahead of the front. Convection continues to flare up over NW
Colombia.

High pressure of 1021 mb located over the Atlantic near 28N39W
has a ridge that extends into the NE Caribbean. This is resulting
in light to gentle winds over the Leeward Islands and regional
waters, including also Puerto Rico where southerly wind flow is
noted around the western periphery of the ridge. Fresh to locally
strong trade winds are observed across the southeast Caribbean S
of 13N, to the E of 75W, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle
to moderate wind prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5 to 6 ft
range in the south- central Caribbean, 3 to 5 ft across the
remainder of the east and central Caribbean, and 2 to 4 ft
elsewhere ahead of the front.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will shift NE through
the weekend, as the cold front sinks S-SE across the northern
basin. The front will reach from the northern Leeward Islands to
the central Caribbean along 17N Fri morning, then become aligned E
to W along 15N Sat before gradually dissipating by Sun. Strong
winds will follow the front, locally higher in Atlantic passages,
with large N swell spreading through Atlantic passages early Fri
through Sat. Another front is expected to move slowly SE through
the SE Gulf Sun and stall across the Yucatan Channel Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N53W to the Turks and Caicos Islands
to far eastern Cuba. Gale force winds are already occurring in a
narrow band just behind the front over the SE Bahamas and likely
extends eastward behind to front to near 69W. New large N swell
is following this system. Please, see the Special Features
section for more information. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are found behind
the front and E of 76W, and 12 ft and greater to the N of 27N. A
wide band of multi-layer clouds with embedded showers and
isolated thunderstorms is associated with the front, and it is
affecting most of the SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands,
including also the Old Bahama Channel.

A second cold front stretches from 31N21W to 24N40W. A narrow band
of mainly low clouds with possible showers is related to the
front. Gentle to moderate NW winds and seas of 9 to 13 ft in NW
swell are behind the front. A 1021 mb high pressure is located
between the fronts near 29N39W. This feature dominates most of
the east and central Atlantic. Mainly moderate NE to E trades are
blowing across the tropical Atlantic, with seas of 7 to 9 ft in NW
to N swell prevailing E of the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will continue moving SE
and reach from 20N55W through the northern Leeward Islands by Fri
morning. Strong to gale-force NW winds immediately behind the
front will exit the SE Bahamas this morning, and shift across the
SE waters through tonight. Large N swell will accompany this
front, with seas of 12 ft or greater will spreading to 22N and E
of 73W. Another cold front is expected to move off NE Florida late
Sat, with fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of it Fri evening
through Sat. The new front is expected to reach from 31N72W to S
Florida late Sun before stalling.

$$
Stripling
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