[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161732
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Mar 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: A cold front
extends from 31N53W to Punta Rucia, Dominican Republic to the NW
Caribbean where it starts to dissipate. A small area of gale
force northerly winds prevails behind the front in the region from
22N to 24N between 62W and 64W. The front will continue to move
SE and reach from 20N55W through the northern Leeward Islands by
Fri morning. Strong to gale-force NW winds will shift eastward
immediately behind the front and through the SE waters through
tonight. Large N swell accompany this front, with seas of 12 ft
or greater spreading southward to 22N and E of 69W by this
evening. Currently, peak seas of 13-16 ft are N of 26N between
55W and 70W. Seas behind the front are not expected to subside
below 12 ft until Sun as the front moves E of 35W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details on these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa
near 06N10W then continues SW to near 03N17W. The ITCZ extends
from 03N18W to 00N27W to 01S34W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 07S to 04N between 26W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure across the eastern U.S is building across the Gulf,
behind a weakening cold front that currently extends across the
NW Caribbean. In the far western Gulf, lower pressures are
developing ahead of the next cold front. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressure along Mexico and coastal
waters is producing fresh to locally strong return flow W of 92W.
The strongest winds within this region are N of Tampico and W of
94W where seas are in the 7 to 9 ft range. Moderate SE winds
dominate the remainder basin along with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except
for fresh E winds in the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, fresh to strong return flow will spread to the
entire Gulf tonight, ahead of the next cold front. This front will
move into the NW Gulf Fri morning, reaching from Apalachee Bay,
Florida to the central Bay of Campeche Sat morning. Brief gale-
force N winds are expected behind the front offshore of the upper
Mexican waters Fri afternoon, shifting to offshore Veracruz Fri
night. The front will then stall and weaken across the SE Gulf,
and sink slowly SE across the Yucatan Channel Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends across far eastern Cuba across the NW
Caribbean to near the northern border of Belize. Fresh to strong
NE winds are seen per overnight scatterometer data to the N of
the front, including the Yucatan Channel. Seas are 5 to 8 ft
across this area. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are along the frontal boundary. Multi-layer clouds with embedded
showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted over eastern
Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Windward Passage and Hispaniola
ahead of the front. Convection continues to flare up over NW
Colombia.

High pressure of 1021 mb located over the Atlantic near 28N39W
has a ridge that extends into the NE Caribbean. This is resulting
in light to gentle winds over the Leeward Islands and regional
waters, including also Puerto Rico where southerly wind flow is
noted around the western periphery of the ridge. Fresh to locally
strong trade winds are observed across the southeast Caribbean S
of 13N, to the E of 75W, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle
to moderate wind prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5 to 6 ft
range in the south- central Caribbean, 3 to 5 ft across the
remainder of the east and central Caribbean, and 2 to 4 ft
elsewhere ahead of the front.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will shift NE through
the weekend, as the cold front sinks S-SE across the northern
basin. The front will reach from the northern Leeward Islands to
the central Caribbean along 17N Fri morning, then become aligned E
to W along 15N Sat before gradually dissipating by Sun. Strong
winds will follow the front, locally higher in Atlantic passages,
with large N swell spreading through Atlantic passages early Fri
through Sat. Another front is expected to move slowly SE through
the SE Gulf Sun and stall across the Yucatan Channel Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N53W to the Turks and Caicos Islands
to far eastern Cuba. Gale force winds are already occurring in a
narrow band just behind the front over the SE Bahamas and likely
extends eastward behind to front to near 69W. New large N swell
is following this system. Please, see the Special Features
section for more information. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are found behind
the front and E of 76W, and 12 ft and greater to the N of 27N. A
wide band of multi-layer clouds with embedded showers and
isolated thunderstorms is associated with the front, and it is
affecting most of the SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands,
including also the Old Bahama Channel.

A second cold front stretches from 31N21W to 24N40W. A narrow band
of mainly low clouds with possible showers is related to the
front. Gentle to moderate NW winds and seas of 9 to 13 ft in NW
swell are behind the front. A 1021 mb high pressure is located
between the fronts near 29N39W. This feature dominates most of
the east and central Atlantic. Mainly moderate NE to E trades are
blowing across the tropical Atlantic, with seas of 7 to 9 ft in NW
to N swell prevailing E of the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will continue moving SE
and reach from 20N55W through the northern Leeward Islands by Fri
morning. Strong to gale-force NW winds immediately behind the
front will exit the SE Bahamas this morning, and shift across the
SE waters through tonight. Large N swell will accompany this
front, with seas of 12 ft or greater will spreading to 22N and E
of 73W. Another cold front is expected to move off NE Florida late
Sat, with fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of it Fri evening
through Sat. The new front is expected to reach from 31N72W to S
Florida late Sun before stalling.

$$
Ramos
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