[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160502
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Mar 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: A cold front
extends from 31N55W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba.
Recent satellite derived wind data show gale force northerly
winds just behind the front over the central Bahamas. The front
will continue to move SE and reach from near 30N55W to the
Windward Passage Thu morning, and from 20N55W through the Leeward
Islands by Fri morning. Strong to gale-force NW winds immediately
behind the front will move through the SE Bahamas during the
overnight hours, and then shift across the SE waters and into the
Caribbean Islands Thu and Thu night. Large N swell will accompany
this front, with seas of 12 ft or greater N of 25N and E of 70W by
Thu evening. At this time, seas will peak 16 ft in the vicinity
of 31N65W. This swell event, with seas in the 12 to 16 ft range,
will continue to propagate across the Atlantic waters in the wake
of the front on Fri.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details on these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa
near 09N13W then continues SW to near 07N16W. The ITCZ extends
from 07N16W to 02N30W to the Amazon Basin near 01N51W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 04N
between 25W and 32W, and within about 120 nm N of the ITCZ between
32W and 36W. Scattered moderate convection is from the equator to
02N and W of 43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters and the State of
Florida where a drier air mass is in place. Fresh NE winds are
found in the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf, including the
offshore waters of western Cuba. Similar wind speeds are noted off
the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere moderate to
fresh NE to E winds prevail, except near the NE Gulf coast. Seas
are 5 to 7 ft across most of the Gulf region, except 3 to 5 ft in
the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure across the eastern U.S is building
across the Gulf in the wake of the front that moved through the
southern Gulf today. Return flow will develop across the W Gulf
tonight, become fresh to strong early Thu and spread to the entire
Gulf Thu night, ahead of the next cold front. This front will move
into the NW Gulf Fri morning, reaching from Apalachee Bay, Florida
to the central Bay of Campeche Sat morning. Brief gale-force N
winds are expected behind the front offshore of the upper Mexican
waters Fri afternoon, shifting to offshore Veracruz Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends across central Cuba and the NW Caribbean,
crossing just S of the Isle of Youth. Fresh to strong NE winds
are seen per scatterometer data in the wake of the front, including
the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are along the frontal boundary. Multi-layer clouds with embedded
showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted over eastern
Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica and Hispaniola ahead of the
front. Convection continues to flare up over parts of Central
America.

High pressure of 1021 mb located over the Atlantic near 28N43W
has a ridge that extends into the NE Caribbean. This is resulting
in light to gentle winds over the Leeward Islands and regional
waters, including also Puerto Rico where a southerly wind flow is
noted around the western periphery of the ridge. Fresh to strong
winds are observed in the Gulf of Venezuela and mainly fresh trades
over the south-central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate wind prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range behind the front, and
in the south-central Caribbean, 3 to 5 ft across the remainder of
the east and central Caribbean, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere ahead of
the front.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will shift NE through
the rest of the week, as a cold front sinks S-SE across the
northwestern basin this evening. The front will reach from the
Windward Passage to Belize on Thu, and then from the northern
Leeward Islands to the central Caribbean along 17N Fri. Strong
winds will follow the front, locally higher in Atlantic passages,
with large N swell spreading through Atlantic passages early Fri
through Sat. Another front is expected to stall near or just N of
the Yucatan Channel by Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N55W to the central Bahamas and central
Cuba. Gale force winds are already occurring just behind the front
over the central Bahamas, a new swell event will follow this system.
Please, see the Special Features section for more information. A
wide band of multi-layer clouds with embedded showers and isolated
thunderstorms is associated with the front, and it is affecting
most of the Bahamas south of Nassau and the Turks and Caicos
Islands, including also the Old Bahama Channel.

A second cold front stretches from 31N21W to 24N40W. A narrow band
of mainly low clouds with possible showers is related to the
front. Gentle to moderate NW winds and seas of 9 to 12 ft in NW
swell are behind the front. A 1021 mb high pressure is located
between the fronts near 28N43W. This feature dominates most of the
east and central Atlantic. Mainly moderate NE to E trades are
blowing across the tropical Atlantic, with seas of 7 to 9 ft in NW
to N swell prevailing E of the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, another cold front is expected to move
off NE Florida late Sat, with fresh to strong southerly winds
ahead of it Fri evening through Sat. The new front is expected to
reach from 31N70W to S Florida late Sun before stalling.

$$
GR
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