[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152105
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Mar 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning and Swell Event: A cold front extends from
31N57W to western Cuba. The front will continue moving SE,
reaching 31N57W to central Cuba this evening, from near 30N55W to
the Windward Passage Thu morning, and from 20N55W through the
Leeward Islands by Fri morning. Strong to gale-force northerly
winds will occur in a narrow band immediately behind the front as
it moves through the Central and SE Bahamas tonight, and then
shifts across the SE waters and into the Caribbean Islands Thu and
Thu night. Large N swell accompany this front, with seas of 12 ft
or greater currently N of 28N between 65W and 75W, and peaking
near 14ft. The seas of 12 ft or greater will spread as far S as
22N and E of 73W Thu night and Fri, with 12 ft seas then shifting
E and gradually subsiding through Sat night.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details on these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 00N28W. The ITCZ
continues from 00N28W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate isolateds
strong convection is observed S of 07N between 11W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh
winds are found S of 25N, with gentle to moderate winds N of 25N.
Seas are in the 6-7 ft range S of 25N, and 3-5 ft N of 25N.

For the forecast, surface ridging building in the wake of the
front that moved away from the basin today. Return flow will
develop across the W Gulf by tonight, become fresh to strong early
Thu and spread to the entire Gulf Thu night, ahead of the next
cold front. This front will move into the NW Gulf Fri morning,
reaching from Apalachee Bay, Florida to the central Bay of
Campeche Sat morning. Brief gale-force N winds are expected behind
the front offshore of the upper Mexican waters Fri afternoon,
shifting to offshore Veracruz Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A relatively weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean
waters. Moderate to fresh winds are noted over the south central
Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds over the north central
Caribbean as well as the eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds
are over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over
the central and eastern Caribbean, and 1-3 ft over the western
Caribbean.

For the forecast, surface ridge across the Atlantic will shift NE
through the rest of the week as a cold front sinks S-SE across
the northwestern basin this evening, reaches from the Windward
Passage to Belize on Thu, and then from the northern Leeward
Islands to the central Caribbean along 17N Fri. Strong winds will
follow the front, locally higher in Atlantic passages, with large
N swell spreading through Atlantic passages early Fri through Sat.
Another front is expected to stall near or just N of the Yucatan
Channel by Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for more
information about upcoming gales and large swell.

The cold front responsible for the upcoming gale- force winds and
large swell extends from 31N57W to western Cuba. Fresh to strong
winds are noted within 120 nm east of the front and N of 28N, as
well as west of the front and N of 28N. Moderate to fresh winds
are elsewhere west of the front as well as within 120 NM east of
the front. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range N of 26N and W of 55W,
and 6-7 ft S of 26N and W of 55W. High pressure of 1020 mb is
centered near 28N43W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of
the high center. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the
remainder of the discussion waters. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range
over the waters between 27W and 55W, and 6-8 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will continue to move
SE and reach from near 30N55W to the Windward Passage Thu morning,
and from 20N55W through the Leeward Islands by Fri morning.
Strong to gale-force NW winds immediately behind the front will
move through the Central and SE Bahamas Wed night, and then shift
across the SE waters and into the Caribbean Islands Thu and Thu
night. Large N swell will accompany this front, with seas of 12 ft
or greater N of 22N and E of 73W. Another cold front is expected
to move off NE Florida late Sat, with fresh to strong southerly
winds ahead of it Fri evening through Sat. The new front is
expected to reach from 31N70W to S Florida late Sun before
stalling.

$$
AL
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