[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132112
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Mar 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Swell Event: Large NW swell, with significant wave
heights of 12 to 21 feet, is occurring north of a line from 31N41N
to 23N58W to 31N65W. The highest seas of 17 to 21 ft are
occurring north of 27N between 45W-55W. Within this area, a cold
front extends from 31N42W to 26N50W to 24N56W. Fresh to strong
winds are occurring on both sides of the front, generally north of
27N between 37W-52W. The NW swell will continue to progress SE.
The area of seas higher than 12 ft will move E and will be
confined to areas north of 22N. By the late Tue night, the seas
over 12 ft will exit the area to the north of 31N between 35W-40W.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
the large swell event.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa
near 13N17W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 01N28W to
01S37W to 03S41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N
southward between 23W and 36W. Heavy precipitation is just inland
over Brazil from 01S-05S between 40W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front stretches across the basin from near Clearwater,
Florida to Tamaulipas, Mexico. Fresh to locally strong NE winds
are observed north of the front, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft,
except up to 8 ft, recently observed by buoys offshore of Texas.
Scattered thunderstorms are along and just south of the front
within 30 nm of a line from Ft. Myers, FL to 25.5N88W as of 2000
UTC. Scattered showers are also noted behind the front over
portions of the NW and north-central Gulf of Mexico. To the south
of the front, winds are mainly gentle, except for moderate SW-W
off SW Florida, and fresh NW-N off Veracruz. Seas are 3-4 ft over
the SE Gulf and 2-3 ft in the SW Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from Florida Bay to
near Veracruz, Mexico by early Tue, gradually washing out over the
southern Gulf through early Wed. Return flow will develop by
early Thu with fresh to strong winds in the west-central and NW
Gulf ahead of the next front, with these winds spreading and
dominating the basin by early Fri. The front will move into the NW
Gulf Fri morning, reaching from Apalachee Bay, Florida to the
central Bay of Campeche by early Sat. Gale-force winds are
possible offshore Tamaulipas and Veracruz behind the front Fri
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fair and stable conditions exist across the Caribbean basin due to
mid to upper-level ridging and subsidence. Gentle to moderate
trades prevail across most of the basin, except for fresh SE winds
to the north of eastern Honduras, and some fresh trades along the
immediate coasts of Venezuela and Colombia. Seas are 4-6 ft in the
NW Caribbean, west of 84W. Seas are 3-5 ft over the southern
basin, south of 15N and east of 80W. Seas of 2-4 ft prevail
elsewhere, except up to 5 ft in the Mona and Anegada Passages.

For the forecast, tradewinds will increase slightly tonight
through Wed, with pulsing fresh to strong winds in the south-
central portion. Northerly swell will move through the Atlantic
waters and NE Caribbean Passages through mid-week. A cold front is
forecast to sink S-SE across the northwestern basin Wed and Wed
night, reach from the Windward Passage to northern Gulf of
Honduras Thu, and from the northern Leeward Islands to the central
Caribbean Fri. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front, with
N swell spreading through Atlantic passages through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 999 mb low pressure offshore Cape Hatteras, NC is moving
northeast, extending a cold front through 31N76W to Titusville, FL
to the Gulf of Mexico. A line of thunderstorms with frequent
lightning and strong wind gusts extends along and within 75 nm
ahead of the front. As of 2030 UTC, convection was occurring
inside an area bounded by 27N80W to 29N81W to 31N77W to 31N66W to
30N70W to 29N74W to 27N80W, strongest from 27N-29N between
76W-80W. Fresh to strong SW winds are occurring ahead of the front
to 66W and north of 28N. Seas are 9 to 12 ft in this area. To the
west of that area towards the coast of Florida, moderate to fresh
winds, along with 6 to 9 ft seas are present. Weak high pressure
ridging persists from the SE Bahamas eastward along 21N, yielding
light to gentle anticyclonic winds south of 25N between 58W and
75W. Seas are 8 ft or higher in N swell to the north of a line
from 21N60W to 23N70W to 28N79W. Seas are 6-7 ft to the south of
that line, NE of the Bahamas and north of Puerto Rico.

Over the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N42W to
26N50W to 24N56W to 23N60W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 90 nm SE of the front, mainly N of 26N and E of 49W. For
information on winds and waves near this front, see the Special
Features section above. High pressure of 1025 mb centered near
35N20W is inducing fresh to strong NE winds from Morocco and
Western Sahara to the Canary Islands, with seas of 6-8 ft. In the
tropical Atlantic from about 07N to 17N between 30W and 58W,
moderate NE trades and seas of 7-8 ft are present in decaying N
swell.

For the forecast W of 55W, the weakening cold front from near
24N55W to 23N67W will dissipate as it continues SE tonight.
Associated large N swell of 12 ft or greater N of 22N and E of 65W
will decay by Tue night. The cold front extending from 31N76W to
Titusville, FL will continue SE with fresh to strong winds N of
27N behind it, with the front reaching the NW Bahamas Tue morning,
from near 28N55W to the Windward Passage Thu morning, and from
20N55W through the Leeward Islands by Fri morning. Large N swell
will accompany the second front with seas of 12 ft or greater N of
25N and E of 72W. Yet another cold front may move off Florida
this weekend, with fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of it Fri
night through Sat.

$$
Hagen
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