[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131619
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Mar 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Swell Event: A cold front enters the forecast waters
near 31N46W and continues southwestward to 24N57W then westward
to near 23N68W. Winds have dropped below gale-force as of 09Z,
but seas remain elevated. Large NW swell trailing the front is
producing seas of 16 to 23 ft across this area. A recent
scatterometer pass reveals fresh to strong westerly winds behind
the front north of 29N while fresh to strong SW winds are noted
ahead of the front north of 25N and west of 37W. Seas north of
24N and east of 70W will remain 12 ft and higher in N to NE
swell through early Tue. Scattered moderate convection is
observed on satellite imagery along and ahead of the front north
of 25N and west of 40W. This active weather is expected to shift
eastward with the front through this afternoon

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on
the large swell event.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Sierra Leone near
08N13W, then continues SW to 05N17W then westward to 05N20W. The
ITCZ continues from 05N20W to the coast of northeastern Brazil
near 02S39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N
southward between 16W and 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front stretches across the basin from near Apalachee Bay,
Florida to near Tamaulipas, Mexico. Fresh to strong NE winds are
observed behind the front, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft and up
to 8ft across the coastal waters of Texas. Scattered moderate
convection is along the front across the Florida coastal waters
extending into the Big Bend. Moderate SE winds and seas of 4 to
6 ft are found ahead of the front. The exception being in the
southeast Gulf, where seas are 2 to 4 ft near a weak low,
spinning offshore the Mexican coast near 21N95W. No convection
is observed with this feature.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds behind the front will
reach from Florida Bay to near Veracruz, Mexico by early Tue,
gradually washing out over the southern Gulf through early Wed.
Return flow will develop by early Thu with fresh to strong winds
in the west-central and NW Gulf ahead of the next front, with
these winds spreading and dominating the basin by early Fri. The
front will move into the NW Gulf Fri morning, quickly reaching
from Apalachee Bay, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche late
Fri night. Gale-force winds will be possible offshore Tamaulipas
and Veracruz behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fair and stable conditions exist across the Caribbean basin.
Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the basin south of 20N
and east of 80W, while fresh to locally strong SE to S winds are
west of 80W, and opening up into the Gulf of Mexico. Seas are
generally 4 to 6 ft across the basin, with areas up to 7 ft in
the eastern Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds north of Honduras
will diminish this afternoon. Otherwise, a weak pressure pattern
is yielding
below normal tradewinds across most of the basin. Tradewinds will
increase slightly tonight through Wed. New northerly swell will
reach the Atlantic waters early Tue and move through the
northeast
Caribbean Passages. A cold front is forecast to sink S to SE
across
the northwestern basin Wed, reach from the Windward Passage to
northern Gulf of Honduras Thu, and from the northern Leeward
Islands to NE coast of Honduras Fri. Fresh to strong winds will
follow the front, with N swell spreading through Atlantic
passages.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on the
swell event ongoing in the Central Atlantic.

A 1001 mb low pressure off the southeast US coast is moving
northeast, dragging the Gulf of Mexico cold front across
northern Florida. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are noted in a
recent scatterometer pass north of 27N, west of 70W to the
coastal waters of north and central Florida. Seas are 7 to 11 ft
across these waters in residual NE swell. Scattered moderate
convection ahead of the front is observed north of 27N from
Florida eastward to 67W. Weak high pressure persists to the east
of the Bahamas and the Leeward islands yielding light to gentle
anticyclonic winds south of 25N between 60W and 76W. Seas are 5
to 7 ft in NE swell from the Bahamas northeastward, then
increase to 8 to 12 ft farther northeast.

Farther east, a stationary front is draped across the eastern
Atlantic from
31N19W to 25N42W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
within 100 nm on either side of the boundary. Large northerly
swell generated well north of the area in recent days continues
to spread across most of the regional Atlantic waters from 05N
to 27N between and east of 55W
with seas in the 6 to 10 ft range. Seas directly behind the front
are currently 8 to 10 ft east of 40W. A weak ridge situated
southeast of the boundary is producing moderate to locally fresh
NE trades across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, the weakening cold front from near
25N55W to the southeast Bahamas will stall and dissipate west of
60W later today.
Strong westerly winds north of 28N and large seas across the
waters
will prevail behind the front today before winds diminish.
Another cold front will enter the far northwest waters today,
then continue southeast with fresh to strong winds north of 27N
behind it, with the front reaching the northwest Bahamas Tue
morning, from near 28N55W to the Windward Passage Thu morning,
and from 20N55W through the Leeward Islands by Fri morning.
Large N swell will accompany the second front with seas of 12 ft
or greater north of 25N and east of 72W.

$$
Nepaul
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