[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Mar 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front passes through 31N40W to 25N50W to 23N55W. A
dissipating cold front continues from 23N55W to 22N60W and 22N66W.
Sea heights range from 12 feet to 18 feet from the frontal
boundary northward between 50W and 60W. The comparatively highest
sea heights are from 30N to 31N between 50W and 53W. The sea
heights are reaching 8 feet, within 300 nm to 360 nm on either
side of the line: 26N22W 17N30W 08N40W 11N47W, and within 150 nm
on either side of the line 11N47W 09N53W. The sea heights range
from 4 feet to 7 feet elsewhere to the east and the southeast of
the frontal boundary. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 120 nm to the E and SE of the frontal
boundary from 24N50W. Strong, and faster, cyclonic wind flow is
to the north of the line 29N northward between 33W and 53W.
Moderate to fresh cyclonic wind is in the remainder of the area
that is from 23N northward between 30W and 53W. Mostly fresh to
some strong NE winds are from 19N northward from 26W eastward.
Moderate to fresh NE winds are to the south of the line: 27N31W
19N44W 17N60W. Gentle breezes are elsewhere from the frontal
boundary southeastward.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 13N17W, to 05N20W and 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W,
crossing the Equator along 29W, to 05S38W off the coast of
Brazil. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 03N southward between 27W and 40W, and from 02N
southward between 44W and 50W. Isolated moderate is possible
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through south Florida near 26N81W, into the
south central Gulf of Mexico, and into the SW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico. High pressure has been building into the Gulf of Mexico
to the north of the cold front. Mostly fresh to some strong NE
winds are from the cold front northward. Gentle wind speeds are to
the south of the front from 90W eastward. Moderate wind speeds are
from the front southward from 90W westward. The sea heights are
ranging from 5 feet to 7 feet mostly, from the front northward.
Some 8 foot sea heights were reported earlier offshore Texas.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers,
are from the cold front northward. To the south of the front,
winds are mainly gentle, except for moderate SW-W off SW Florida,
and fresh NW-N off Veracruz. Seas are 3-4 ft over the SE Gulf and
2-3 ft in the SW Gulf.

A cold front from near Naples, Florida to the Mexican coast near
Tampico will reach from Florida Bay to near Veracruz, Mexico by
early Tue, gradually washing out over the southern Gulf through
Wed. Return flow will develop across the W Gulf by early Thu,
becoming fresh to strong Thu and spreading to the entire Gulf Fri,
ahead of the next cold front. This front will move into the NW
Gulf Fri morning, reaching from Apalachee Bay, Florida to the
central Bay of Campeche by early Sat. Gale-force winds are
possible offshore Tamaulipas and Veracruz behind the front Fri
evening and night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fair and stable conditions are in the Caribbean Sea, with a
middle level to upper level to upper-level ridge and subsidence
in the area. Gentle to moderate trades are in most of the area.
The exception is for fresh SE winds to the north of eastern
Honduras, and some fresh trade winds along the immediate coasts
of Venezuela and Colombia. Seas are 4-6 ft in the NW Caribbean,
west of 84W. Seas are 3-5 ft in the southern basin, south of 15N
and east of 80W. Seas of 2-4 ft are elsewhere, except for heights
to 5 feet in the Mona Passage and in the Anegada Passage.

A weak pressure pattern is yielding below normal tradewinds
across most of the basin, however tradewinds will increase
slightly tonight through Wed, with fresh winds pulsing to strong
winds at night in the south-central portion. Northerly swell will
move through the Atlantic waters and NE Caribbean Passages through
mid-week. A cold front is forecast to sink S-SE across the
northwestern basin Wed and Wed night, reach from the Windward
Passage to northern Gulf of Honduras Thu, and from the northern
Leeward Islands to the central Caribbean Fri. Fresh to strong
winds will follow the front, with N swell spreading through
Atlantic passages through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N72W, near the NW Bahamas, beyond
south Florida near 26N81W, into the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 25N northward from 60W westward. Mostly fresh
to some strong cyclonic winds are from 25N northward from 68W
westward. Moderate winds are from 23N to 25N between 68W and the
Bahamas. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 12 feet from 20N
and the Bahamas northward from 64W westward. The sea heights
range from 1 foot to 3 feet from the Bahamas southward.

A weakening cold front from near 22N55W to 21N66W will dissipate
tonight. Associated large N swell of 12 ft or greater N of 22N and
E of 65W will subside by Tue night. Another cold front extends
from 31N72W to near Pompano Beach, Florida will continue moving
SE, reaching the NW Bahamas Tue morning, from near 28N55W to the
Windward Passage Thu morning, and from 20N55W through the Leeward
Islands by Fri morning. Large northerly swell will accompany the
second front with seas of 12 ft or greater N of 29N and E of 72W
through Tue. Yet another cold front is expected to move off
Florida this weekend, with fresh to strong southerly winds ahead
of it Fri night through Sat.

$$
MT/ss
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net