[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122224
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Mar 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front enters the forecast waters
near 31N55W and continues southwestward to 24N69W to the Bahamas
near 24N75W. Near-gale to gale force SW winds are ahead of the
front N of 27N to about 49W. Fresh to strong SW winds extend
southward to 24N and eastward to 44W. Numerous showers with some
thunderstorms are within 240 nm ahead of the front affecting
mainly the waters N of 24N and east of 64W. Gale-force westerly
winds are behind the front to the N of 30N, westward to 64W.
Strong W to NW winds extend southward to 27N and westward to 68W.
Seas N of 27N are 12 to 15 ft ahead of the front and 12 to 21 ft
behind the front. The active weather is expected to shift eastward
with the front through this evening. The cold front will move
quickly ESE across the northern waters, and extend from near
31N46W to 23N60W early Mon. By early Mon, the gale force winds
will have ended, but strong winds will still be occurring N of 27N
between 38W and 59W. Seas are forecast to peak at 20 to 24 ft
tonight into Mon north of 29N between 46W and 63W. Through Mon
night, seas of 12 ft or greater will be experienced for most of
the area north of 21N between 37W and 70W in large NW to N swell.
The swell across the Atlantic will begin to gradually subside late
Tue.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
the gale and swell events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through coast of Liberia
near 07N11W, then continues SW to near 03N15W. The ITCZ extends
from 03N15W to the equator at 25W to 00N50W. Clusters of moderate
to strong convection are noted from 01N to 05N between 05W and
15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing fresh SW winds
across the north-central Gulf, and moderate S to SW winds over the
E Gulf. Gentle S winds prevail for the SW and west-central Gulf.
The latest buoy and altimeter data show seas of 3 to 5 ft across
the basin, except for 2-4 ft in the E Gulf and SW Gulf. A broad
upper ridge is inducing fair weather across the Gulf, with skies
mostly cloud free, except for smoke and haze due to agricultural
fires across the nearshore waters of Mexico. A line of
thunderstorms is located along the coast and extends up to 30 nm
offshore between Apalachicola, FL and Pensacola.

For the forecast, high pressure over the extreme SE Gulf will
shift E of the Bahamas through Mon with moderate to fresh
southerly flow across the basin. A cold front will enter the
northern Gulf tonight, then sink gradually southward through Tue,
and exit the basin on Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected N
of the front Mon through Wed. Strong southerly winds will develop
over the W and NW Gulf on Thu ahead of the next approaching cold
front forecast to move into the NW Gulf early Fri. This front will
reach from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Fri
night. Gale force winds are possible west of the front off
Tampico, Mexico Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow
are noted across the basin producing isolated passing showers over
the southern portion of the basin. Otherwise fair weather
prevails. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across most of the
basin, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh SE winds W
of 84W, including the Gulf of Honduras and the Yucatan Channel.
Moderate to fresh trades may also be occurring in the far SE
Caribbean offshore Venezuela. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range east of
70W and 3-5 ft elsewhere, except for 1-3 ft in the north-central
Caribbean, north of 16N between 71W and 83W.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern is yielding below
normal tradewinds across the basin. Tradewinds will increase Mon
night through Wed. Large northerly swell impacting the regional
Atlantic waters, including the passages of the NE Caribbean, will
gradually subside through early Mon. New northerly swell will
arrive Tue. Fresh to strong ESE winds are expected across the Gulf
of Honduras tonight through Tue morning. A cold front is forecast
to enter the northwestern basin early Wed, and reach from the
Windward Passage to northern Gulf of Honduras Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N55W and continues
southwestward to 24N69W to the Bahamas near 24N75W. Gale force
winds are on either side of the front north of 29N. Please see
the Special Features section for more details. Large N swell
continues to reach the coasts of the Leeward Islands where seas
are 7 to 8 ft.

Another cold front extends from 31N25W to 24N36W. Large northerly
swell generated well north of the area in recent days continues
to spread across most of the regional Atlantic waters from 05N to
27N between and E of 60W with seas in the 8 to 11 ft range. Seas
directly behind the front are currently 9 to 11 ft E of 35W. A
1022 mb high pressure is analyzed in the wake of the front near
32N28W.

A 1021 mb high pressure located over the Madeira Islands, anchors
a ridge extending SW into the eastern tropical Atlantic. Moderate
to locally fresh NE winds are over the Cabo Verde Islands
extending west-southwestward. Seas W of those islands are 8 to 9
ft in NW swell across much of the waters E of 35W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the western Atlantic cold front will
extend from 28N55W to the southern Bahamas this evening, and from
25N55W to 23N61W early Mon before dissipating west of 55W. Gale-
force W winds will prevail behind the front N of 30N and E of 62W
tonight. Moderate to large N to NE swell currently dominating the
regional waters will gradually subside through tonight S of 25N,
while seas N of 25N will remain 10 ft and higher through early
next week. Another cold front will enter the far NW waters Mon,
then continue SE, reaching the NW Bahamas Tue morning, and from
near 29N55W to the Windward Passage by Thu morning. Fresh to near-
gale force SW winds will develop tonight offshore northern
Florida ahead of this front.

$$
Hagen
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