[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121753
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Mar 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front enters the forecast waters
near 31N56W and continues southwestward to the NW Bahamas where
it becomes stationary. Strong to minimal gale force SW winds are
ahead of the front N of 28N to about 52W. Fresh to strong SW winds
extend S to 25N. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are ahead of
the front affecting mainly the waters N of 26N between the front
and 52W. Minimal gale-force westerly winds are behind the front to
the N of 30N, with strong NW to W winds extending southward to
27N. Seas N of 26N are 10 to 14 ft ahead of the front and 12 to 16
ft behind the front. The active weather is expected to shift
eastward with the front through Sun. The cold front will move
quickly ESE across the northern waters, and extend from near 28N55W
to the southern Bahamas by this evening, then dissipate. During
this time, gale-force SW to W winds are expected ahead of the
front, N of 28.5N, and W gales are forecast behind the front N of
30N and E of 67W. Moderate to large N to NE swell currently
dominating the regional waters will gradually subside through
tonight S of 25N, while seas N of 25N will remain 10 ft and higher
through early next week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
the gale and swell events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through coast of Liberia
near 06N10W, then continues SW to near 03N15W. The ITCZ extends
from 03N15W to the equator at 30W to 00N50W. Clusters of moderate
to strong convection are noted from 02N to 05N between 05W and
10W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 02N to 04N between
10W and 16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing moderate to
locally fresh S to SW winds. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft based
on an altimeter pass and buoys observations, except 1 to 3 ft in
NE Gulf. A broad upper ridge is inducing fair weather across the
Gulf, with skies mostly cloud free, except for smoke and haze due
to agricultural fires across the nearshore waters of Mexico.
Several coastal cities are reporting haze.

For the forecast, high pressure over the extreme SE Gulf will
shift E of the Bahamas through Mon with moderate to fresh southerly
flow across the basin. A cold front will enter the northern Gulf
tonight, then sink gradually southward through Tue, and exit the
basin on Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected N of the front
Mon through Wed. Strong southerly winds will develop over the W
and NW Gulf on Thu ahead of the next approaching cold front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow
are noted across the basin producing isolated to scattered
passing showers. Otherwise fair weather prevails. Recent satellite
derived wind data provide observations of gentle to moderate
trades across most of the basin, with the exception of moderate to
fresh SE winds W of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras and the
Yucatan Channel. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range across most of the
central and eastern Caribbean, except 6-8 ft in N-NE swell across
the Mona and Anegada Passages. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are also noted
in the Gulf of Honduras while seas of 1 to 3 ft dominates the NW
part of the basin.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern is yielding a below
normal tradewinds across the basin. Tradewinds will increase again
Mon night through Wed. Large northerly swell impacting the
regional Atlantic waters, including passages of the NE Caribbean,
will gradually subside through early Mon. New northerly swell will
arrive Tue. Fresh to strong ESE winds are expected across the
Gulf of Honduras tonight through Tue morning. A cold front is
forecast to enter the northwestern basin early Wed, and reach from
the Windward Passage to northern Gulf of Honduras Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N57W and continues
southwestward to the NW Bahamas where it becomes stationary.
Minimal gale force winds are on either side of the front. Please,
see the Special Features section for more details. Large N to NE
swell continues to reach the coasts of the Leeward Islands where
seas are 7 to 9 ft.

Another cold front extends from 31N26W to 20N38W where it becomes
stationary to near 20N45W. A frontal trough continues from 20N45W
to just N of Barbados near 14N60W. Large northerly swell generated
well north of the area in recent days continue to spread across
most of the regional Atlantic waters N of 10N and E of 60W with
seas in the 8 to 12 ft range. Seas directly behind the front are
currently 12 to 14 ft E of 35W. A 1024 mb high pressure is analyzed
in the wake of the front near 29N38W.

A 1022 mb high pressure located over the Madeira Islands, anchors
a ridge extending SW into the eastern tropical Atlantic. Moderate
to locally fresh N to NE winds are over the Cabo Verde Islands.
Seas there are 7 to 9 ft in NW swell across much of the waters E
of 35W, except in the lee of the islands. Visible satellite
pictures, and the Meteosat RGB Dust imagery indicate the presence
of African dust over the Atlantic near the coasts of Mauritania
and Western Saharan.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front from near 31N56W to the
northern Bahamas will move quickly ESE across the northern waters.
Please, see the Special Features section for more information.
Another cold front will enter the far NW waters Mon, then continue
SE, reaching the NW Bahamas Tue morning, and from near 29N55W to
the Windward Passage by Thu morning.

$$
GR
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