[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Mar 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING and HIGH SEAS:

Gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 12 feet
to 15 feet, are forecast from 29N northward between
47W and 54W. A second area of gale-force winds, and sea
heights ranging from 15 feet to 23 feet, are forecast
from 29N northward between 54W and 62W. A cold front
passes through 31N52W to 25N60W, 23N70W. A surface
trough continues from 23N70W, to 23N77W in the Bahamas.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 240 nm to the SE of the cold front
from 24N59W northeastward. Isolated moderate is
elsewhere from 20N northward from 40W westward.
Strong and faster cyclonic wind flow is to the north
of the line: 31N41W 24N54W 28N63W 31N67W. Moderate
to fresh cyclonic wind is in the remainder of the
area that is from 21N northward between 47W and 70W.
Gentle anticyclonic breezes are within 200 nm on
either side of the line: from 18N63W to 19N50W
24N38W, to a 1025 mb high pressure center that is
near 32N28W. The sea heights have been ranging
from 9 feet to 16 feet from 24N northward between
the cold front and 70W. The comparatively highest
sea height is 18 feet from 30N to 31N between 58W
and 59W. The sea heights range from 5 feet to
8 feet from 17N to 25N from 45W westward.
A warm front is from 31N northward from 70W
westward. The sea heights have been ranging from
6 feet to 9 feet from the surface trough and the
Bahamas northward from 70W westward. Strong
southerly winds and faster, are from 29N northward
from 74W westward. Moderate to fresh southerly
winds are elsewhere from 24N northward
from 73W westward.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N16W, to 04N20W, crossing the Equator along 29W,
to 03S39W off the coast of Brazil. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward
from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal boundary and a surface trough are in the coastal
waters and in the coastal plains of the U.S.A., in the
northern parts of the Gulf of Mexico. The frontal boundary
is between the Florida Panhandle and the Deep South of
Texas. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 29N
northward from 84W eastward, into north Florida.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within
60 nm to 90 nm of the U.S.A. Gulf of Mexico coast from
26N northward. Strong northerly winds are in the coastal
waters between SE Louisiana and the upper Texas coast.
Fresh to strong SE winds are off the coast of the
NE Yucatan Peninsula. Mostly moderate anticyclonic wind
flow is in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea
heights have been ranging mostly from 2 feet to 4 feet,
with the possibility of still 5 feet in the central
sections of the Gulf of Mexico.

A weak Atlantic high pressure ridge extends westward
through the Straits of Florida to the central Gulf along
25N, and will produce moderate to fresh southerly flow
across the basin. A cold front is entering the northern
Gulf tonight, and will sink gradually southward through
Tue, and exit the basin on Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds
are expected N of the front Mon through Wed. Strong
southerly winds will develop over the W and NW Gulf on
Thu ahead of the next approaching cold front forecast
to move into the NW Gulf early Fri. This front will
reach from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche
Fri night. Gale force winds are possible west of the
front off Tampico, Mexico Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge passes through 18N60W, to Hispaniola,
to the Yucatan Peninsula. The sea heights range from
3 feet to 5 feet in the eastern one-third of the area,
and within 300 nm of the coast of NW Venezuela.
The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet from 15N
to 20N from 80W westward. The sea heights have been
ranging from 1 foot to 3 feet in the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea. Patches of low level moisture and isolated
passing rainshowers are embedded in the trade wind flow.
Strong NE winds are within 45 nm of the coast of Colombia
between 73W and 76W. Fresh NE winds are within 200 nm of
the coast of Colombia between 70W and 77W. Moderate
easterly winds are elsewhere within 360 nm of the coast
of Colombia between 70W and 80W. Mostly moderate and
some fresh NE winds are from 16N southward between 56W
and 66W. Strong SE winds are within 120 nm of the coast
of Honduras from 87W eastward. Gentle to moderate winds
are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

A weak pressure pattern is yielding below normal
trade winds across the basin. Trade winds will increase
Mon night through Wed. Large northerly swell impacting
the regional Atlantic waters, including passages of the
NE Caribbean, will subside gradually through early Mon.
New northerly swell will arrive Tue. Fresh to strong
ESE winds are expected across the Gulf of Honduras
tonight through Tue morning. A cold front is forecast
to enter the northwestern basin early Wed, and reach
from the Windward Passage to northern Gulf of Honduras
on Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the ongoing GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING, and the
SEA HEIGHTS, that are in the Atlantic Ocean.

A stationary front is along 31N23W 27N30W 23N40W.
Fresh NE winds are from 15N southward between 40W and
53W. Fresh NE winds are within 280 nm on either side
of the line 22N22W 13N39W. The sea heights range from
8 feet to 10 feet within 600 nm to 750 nm on either
side of the line 30N14W 21N28W 18N37W 08N57W. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet, elsewhere in
the Atlantic Ocean, from 50W eastward.

A cold front extends from near 29N55W to the central
Bahamas. The front will move ESE through Mon and reach
along 23N, and dissipate W of 60W. Gale-force W winds will
prevail behind the front N of 30N and E of 62W tonight.
Moderate N to NE swell currently dominating the regional
waters will subside gradually through tonight S of 25N,
while seas N of 25N will remain 10 ft and higher through
early next week. Another cold front will enter the far
NW waters Mon, then continue SE, reaching the NW Bahamas
Tue morning, and from near 29N55W to the Windward Passage
by Thu morning.

$$
mt
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