[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Mar 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SW Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning:

Expect SW-to-W gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging
from 12 feet to 15 feet, from 28N northward between 62W
and 67W. The gale-force SW winds are forecast to be to
the east of the cold front for the next 33 hours or so.
A cold front passes through 31N65W to 28N70W, through the
NW Bahamas, to south Florida near 26N, into the Gulf of
Mexico near 26N84W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is within 500 nm to the ESE of the cold
front. The sea heights have been ranging from 8 feet to
13 feet from 20N northward between 60W and 75W. The sea
heights have been ranging from 5 feet to 7 feet elsewhere
from 75W westward. Strong and faster cyclonic wind flow
is from 25N northward between 55W and 76W. Moderate to
fresh southerly winds are elsewhere from 400 nm to 650 nm
to the SE of the cold front between 54W and 63W, and to
the SE of the cold front between 63W and the Bahamas. The
sea heights have been ranging from 8 feet to 15 feet
elsewhere from 17N northward between 50W and the Bahamas.
The 24-hour rainfall total in inches, during the period
that ended at 12/0000 UTC, according to the Pan American
Temperature and Precipitation Tables, was 0.18 in Bermuda.

Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Sea Heights:

A cold front passes through 31N30W to 23N40W, 20N45W.
A surface trough continues from 20N45W, to 15N54W, and
12N61W about 60 nm to the north of Tobago in the
SE Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 12N to 20N between 30W and 60W,
from 20N northward from the cold front/surface trough
eastward, and in the Atlantic Ocean to the northwest
of the cold front/surface trough. The sea heights
have been ranging from 8 feet to 14 feet from 11N
northward between 30W and 50W. The wind speeds have
been ranging from moderate to fresh, with some
strong winds, from 26N northward between 30W and 40W.
Moderate to fresh winds have been from 28N northward
between 40W and 53W.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Sierra Leone near 07N13W, to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues
from 03N17W, crossing the Equator along 26W, to
02S38W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is
from 03N southward between 24W and 27W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 06W eastward.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward
from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the NW Bahamas, to south
Florida near 26N, into the Gulf of Mexico near 26N84W.
Light to moderate anticyclonic wind flow is in the
eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights are
3 feet or less in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico,
and they range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the western half
of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh SE winds are within 400 nm
to the SE of the coast of Texas. Anticyclonic moderate
wind speeds or slower are in the western half of the
Gulf of Mexico.

A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 24N84W. A surface
ridge extends from the 1016 mb high pressure center to
the coastal plains of the deep south of Texas/NE Mexico.

Weak high pressure over the SE Gulf will shift E of the
Bahamas through Mon to produce moderate to fresh southerly
flow across the basin. A cold front is forecast to enter
the northern Gulf Sun night, then sink gradually southward
into Wed, and exit the basin on Wed. Fresh to strong
NE winds are expected N of this front Mon through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong NE winds have been within 60 nm of the coast of
Colombia between 73W and 76W. Fresh NE winds have been
elsewhere within 150 nm of the coast of Colombia between
72W and 77W. Moderate NE winds, and sea heights that
have been ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet, have been in
the rest of the southern half of the area that is
between 70W and 80W. The sea heights have been ranging
from 2 feet to 4 feet in the remainder of the Caribbean
Sea. Moderate NE-to-E winds are in the southern
two-thirds of the area from 70W eastward. Light to
gentle anticyclonic wind flow is elsewhere from 70W
eastward. Light to gentle winds are in the remainder
of the Caribbean Sea.

A weak high pressure ridge extends from the central
Atlantic W-SW to eastern Cuba tonight, yielding
a below normal tradewind pattern across the basin.
More typical tradewinds will return Tue night. Large
northerly swell impacting the regional Atlantic waters,
including passages of the NE Caribbean, will subside
gradually through Mon, then new northerly swell will
arrive Tue. Fresh to strong ESE winds are expected
across the Gulf of Honduras Sun night into into
Mon night. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast
to enter the northwestern basin Wed, and reach from
the Windward Passage to northern Gulf of Honduras Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the ongoing GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING, and the
SIGNIFICANT SEA HEIGHTS, that are in the Atlantic
Ocean during the next 24 hours to 48 hours or so.

The sea heights have been ranging from 8 feet to 13 feet
from 24N northward from 30W eastward. The sea heights have
been ranging from 4 feet to 7 feet elsewhere from 30W
eastward. Moderate to fresh N-to-NE winds have been from
the Cabo Verde Islands northward and eastward. Fresh NE
winds have been from 10N to 20N between the Cabo Verde
Islands and 34W, and from 14N southward between 45W and
the SE Caribbean Sea. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE
winds are elsewhere from 20N southward, between the two
areas of the fresh NE wind flow. All the other wind speeds
for the Atlantic Ocean are slower than moderate. A 1019 mb
high pressure center is near 26N47W.

A cold front from near 31N65W to southern Florida will
continue to move quickly ESE across the northern waters,
and drag the front from near 28N55W to just offshore Cuba
by Sun evening, then dissipate. Until that time, strong
to gale-force SW to W winds are expected ahead of the
front, N of 27N, and behind the front N of 27N and E of
70W. Moderate to large N to NE swell currently dominating
the regional waters will subside gradually through Sun to
the S of 25N, while seas to the N of 25N will remain
10 ft and higher through early next week. Another cold
front will enter the far NW waters Mon, then continue SE,
reaching 31N58W to eastern Cuba by Wed evening.

$$
mt
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