[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112328
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Mar 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SW Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front enters the forecast waters
near 31N69W and continues westward across central Florida into
the NE Gulf of Mexico as a warm front. Strong to gale force
winds are ahead of the front N of 28N to about 65W based on
recent scatterometer data. Fresh to strong SW winds extend S to
25N. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the front
affecting mainly the waters N of 26N between the front and 62W.
This active weather is expected to shift eastward with the front
through Sun. The cold front will move quickly E-SE and reach
from Bermuda to near Miami, Florida, this evening, then from
28N55W to just offshore Cuba Sun evening before dissipating.
Strong to gale-force SW to W winds are expected N of 26N and
ahead of the front into Sun night, while strong to gale-force NW
winds prevail W of the front and N of 26N. Moderate to large N to
NE swell currently dominating the regional waters will gradually
subside into Mon to the S of 25N, while seas remain 10 ft and
higher to the N of 25N as the frontal system sweeps across the
area. Altimeter data and buoys observations indicate seas of 8 to
12 ft SE of the front and E of the Bahamas, with seas of 8 to 13
ft reaching the Atlantic regional waters of Puerto Rico.

Central Atlantic Significant Seas: A cold front extends from
31N33W to 21N44W. A frontal trough continues from 20N44W to
14N58W. A recent scatterometer pass indicates near-gale force
winds west of the front near 30N44W while fresh to strong winds
are noted on either side of the front N of 27N between 30W and
50W. Seas are currently peaking near 18 ft based on altimeter
data. Associated seas of 12 ft and higher are currently noted N
of 22N and E of 60W. The swell from this event will gradually
abate through the weekend, with winds/seas subsiding below 12 ft
Sun morning.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on the gale and swell events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coastal
border of Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N12W to 05N14W. The
ITCZ continues from 05N14W to the equator at 30W then continues
to coastal Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted S of 08N and E of 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front extends from 28N83W to 30N89W. A weak 1016 mb high
pressure is analyzed S of the front near 24N85W and dominates
the remainder of the Gulf waters. A narrow line of clouds with
isolated showers is associated with the front. Under this weather
pattern, a light to gentle anticyclonic flow prevail, with the
exception of gentle N winds behind the front. Seas are generally
in the 1 to 3 ft range.

For the forecast, the warm front will lift N tonight then
dissipate. A cold front is forecast to approach the northern Gulf
Sun, inducing moderate to locally fresh southerly flow across
the entire Gulf. This front will enter the northern Gulf Sun
night, then sink gradually southward into Wed, and exit the basin
by Wed night. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected N of this
front Mon through Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow
are noted producing isolated to scattered passing showers, more
concentrated over Haiti and just W of Jamaica. Recent satellite
derived wind data show fresh to locally strong NE winds offshore
Colombia with mainly gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. N-NE
Atlantic swell, with seas of 5 to 8 ft, is propagating through
the Mona and Anegada Passages. Seas are 4-6 ft offshore Colombia,
and in the 3-5 ft range across the remainder of the central and
eastern Caribbean. Seas of 1 to 3 ft dominates the NW part of the
basin.

For the forecast, a tradewind dominant regime will remain in
plus much of next week. Large northerly swell impacting the
regional Atlantic waters, including passages of the NE Caribbean,
will gradually subside through Sun night, then return toward the
middle of next week. Winds may pulse to strong tonight offshore
Colombia. Fresh to strong ESE winds are expected across the the
Gulf of Honduras Sun night into into Mon night. Looking ahead, a
cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern basin Wed, which
will bring fresh NE winds and rising seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N69W and continues
westward across central Florida. To the east, a cold front
extends from 31N33W to 21N44W. A frontal trough continues from
20N44W to 14N58W. Please read the Special Features section for
details on these two features and events related to them.

A weak 1016 mb high pressure is NE of the Leeward Islands near
24N57W while a ridge, anchored on a 1025 mb high pressure
located NE of the Madeira Islands, dominates the remainder of the
Atlantic forecast region. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are
over the Cabo Verde Islands with fresh to locally strong winds
between islands.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front related to the gale
warning will continue to move ESE to 28N55W to just offshore
Cuba Sun evening, then dissipate. Until it dissipates, strong to
gale-force SW to W winds are expected ahead of the front, N of
27N, and behind the front N of 27N and E of 70W. Moderate to
large N to NE swell currently dominating the regional waters will
gradually subside tonight to the S of 25N, while seas to the N
will remain 10 ft and higher through early next week. Another
cold front will enter the far NW waters Mon, then continue SE,
reaching 31N58W to eastern Cuba by Wed evening.

$$
ERA
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