[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111742
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Mar 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from
31N33W to 20N45W. A frontal trough continues from 20N45W to the
Windward Islands crossing near Barbados and St. Vincent where some
showers have been reported. A recent scatterometer pass indicates
minimal gale force winds west of the front near 31N45W while fresh
to strong winds are noted on either side of the front N of 27N
between 30W and 50W. Seas are currently peaking near 16 ft based
on altimeter data. Associated seas of 12 ft and higher are
currently observed N of 22N and E of 50W. The swell from this
event will gradually abate through the weekend, with seas
subsiding below 12 ft Sun morning. Winds will be below gale force
early this afternoon.

SW Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front enters the forecast waters
near 31N73W and continues westward across north-central Florida
into the NE Gulf of Mexico. Strong to gale force winds are ahead
of the front N of 28N to about 68W based on scatterometer data.
Fresh to strong SW winds extend S to about 25N. Numerous showers
and thunderstorms are ahead of the front affecting mainly the
waters N of 27N between the front and 70W. This active weather is
expected to shift eastward with the front the rest of today. The
front will move quickly E-SE and reach from Bermuda to near Miami,
Florida, this evening, then from 28N55W to just offshore Cuba Sun
evening before dissipating. Strong to gale-force SW to W winds
are expected N of 26N and ahead of the front into Sun night, while
strong to gale-force NW winds prevail W of the front and N of
26N. Moderate to large N to NE swell currently dominating the
regional waters will gradually subside into Mon to the S of 25N,
while seas remain 10 ft and higher to the N of 25N as the frontal
system sweeps across the area. Altimeter data and buoys
observations indicate seas of 8 to 12 ft SE of the front and E of
the Bahamas, with seas of 9 to 13 ft reaching the Atlantic
regional waters of Puerto Rico.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on the gale and swell events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coastal
border of Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N11W to 05N14W. The
ITCZ continues from 05N14W to the equator at 30W then continues
to coastal Brazil near 00N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 00N to 06N between 15W and 22W.
Similar convective activity is noted where the ITCZ meets the
coast of Brazil, mainly from 00N to 03N between 48W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Tampa Bay, FL to the coast of SE
Louisiana near 29N90W where it becomes stationary. A weak 1016 mb
high pressure is analyzed S of the front near 25N87W and dominates
the remainder of the Gulf waters. A narrow line of clouds with
isolated showers is associated with the front. Under this weather
pattern, a light to gentle anticyclonic flow prevail, with the
exception of gentle N winds behind the front. Seas are generally
in the 1 to 3 ft range.

For the forecast, the cold front will dissipate this afternoon
as it moves southward across Florida and the adjacent Gulf.
Another cold front is forecast to approach the northern Gulf
Sun, inducing moderate to locally fresh southerly flow across the
entire Gulf. This front will enter the northern Gulf Sun evening,
then sink gradually southward through Tue night, and exit the
basin Wed. In response, fresh to strong NE winds are expected N
of the front Mon through Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As previously mentioned, a frontal trough from the Atlantic is
crossing near Barbados and St. Vincent where some showers have
been reported. Elsewhere, patches of low level moisture embedded
in the trade wind flow are noted producing isolated to scattered
passing showers, more concentrated over Haiti and just W of
Jamaica. Recent satellite derived wind data show fresh to locally
strong NE winds offshore Colombia with mainly gentle to moderate
trades elsewhere. N-NE Atlantic swell, with seas of 6 to 8 ft, is
propagating through the Mona and Anegada Passages. Seas are 4-6
ft offshore Colombia, and in the 3-5 ft range across the remainder
of the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas of 1 to 3 ft dominates
the NW part of the basin.

For the forecast, a series of high pressures will pass N of the
area, maintaining a tradewind dominated regime into next week.
Large northerly swell impacting the regional Atlantic waters,
including passages of the NE Caribbean, will gradually subside
into Mon. Winds off the coast of Colombia will likely pulse to
strong at night into Sun night. Fresh to strong ESE winds are
expected across the the Gulf of Honduras Sun through Mon night.
Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern
basin early Wed, which will bring fresh to locally strong NE winds
and rising seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N73W and continues
westward across north-central Florida into the NE Gulf of Mexico.
Gale force winds are ahead of the front over the Atlantic waters.
A stationary front extends from 31N33W to 20N45W. Gale force winds
are on the W side of the front. Please read the Special Features
section for details on these two separate gale force wind warnings
and associated high seas across the Atlantic forecast waters. A
weak 1017 mb high pressure is NE of the Leeward Islands near
22N55W while a ridge, anchored on a 1027 mb high pressure located
NE of the Madeira Islands, dominates the remainder of the Atlantic
forecast region. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are over the
Cabo Verde Islands with fresh to locally strong winds between
islands.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front over the far NW waters
and N Florida will move quickly E-SE and reach from Bermuda to
near Miami, Florida, this evening. Please, see the Special
Features section for more details. Another cold front will move
across the far NW waters Mon and drag a cold front SE across the
area, reaching from 31N58W to eastern Cuba by Wed evening.

$$
GR
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