[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Mar 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SW Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front enters the forecast
waters near 31N61W and continues southwestward to the central
Bahamas and then westward to the Florida Keys. Gale force SW
winds are ahead of the front N of 28N to about 54W. Fresh to
strong SW winds extend S to 25N. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms are ahead of the front affecting mainly the waters
N of 25.5N between the front and 54W. Gale-force westerly winds
are behind the front to the N of 30N, with strong NW to W winds
extending southward to 27N. Seas N of 26N are 12 to 16 ft ahead
of the front and 12 to 18 ft behind the front. The active
weather is expected to shift eastward with the front through
Sun. The cold front will move quickly E-SE and and drag the
front from near 28N55W to the southern Bahamas by Sun evening,
then dissipate W of 65W by Mon as the gales lift N of the area.
Moderate to large N to NE swell currently dominating the
regional waters will gradually subside into Mon to the S of 25N,
while seas remain 10 ft and higher to the N of 25N as the
frontal system sweeps across the northern waters.

Central Atlantic Significant Seas: A cold front extends from
31N26W to 20N45W. A frontal trough continues from 20N44W to
14N58W. Large northerly swell generated well north of the area
in recent days continue to spread across most of the regional
Atlantic waters E of 75W this morning. Seas directly behind the
front are currently 12 to 14 ft N of 25N and extend westward to
48W. The swell from this event will gradually subside through
the weekend, with winds/seas subsiding below 12 ft late Sun
morning.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on the gale and swell events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through coastal Sierra
Leone near 08N12W to 03.5N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03.5N16W
to the equator at 28W then continues to coastal Brazil near
03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 03.5N and E
of 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front has moved northward and inland across Alabama and
northern Florida, while the tail of a cold front extends across
the Florida Keys to the Dry Tortugas. A weak ridge persists
south of the front and extends WNW to the central Gulf,
producing moderate southerly winds to the W of 92W. A broad
upper ridge is inducing fair weather across the Gulf, with skies
mostly cloud free, except for smoke across the nearshore waters
of Mexico.  Seas are generally in the 1 to 3 ft range, except 4
to 5 ft across NW portions.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure ridge over the extreme
SE Gulf will shift E of the Bahamas through Mon to produce
moderate to fresh southerly flow across most of the basin. A
cold front is forecast to enter the northern Gulf Sun night,
then sink gradually southward through Tue, and exit the basin to
the SE on Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected N of this
front Mon through Wed. Strong southerly winds will develop W and
NW portions on Thu ahead of the next approaching cold front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow
are noted producing isolated to scattered passing showers, more
concentrated over Haiti and offshore of Cuba, and across SE
portions. Otherwise fair weather dominates the basin. Gentle to
moderate trades prevail E of 80W, while fresh to locally strong
SE winds are across the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are in the 3-5 ft
range across most of the central and eastern Caribbean, except 6-
8 ft in N-NE swell across the Mona and Anegada Passages. Seas of
1 to 3 ft dominates the NW part of the basin.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure ridge extends from the
central Atlantic W-SW to eastern Cuba this morning is yielding a
below normal tradewind pattern across the basin. More typical
tradewinds will return Mon night through Wed. Large northerly
swell impacting the regional Atlantic waters, including passages
of the NE Caribbean, will gradually subside through early Mon,
then new northerly swell will arrive Tue. Fresh to strong ESE
winds are expected across the Gulf of Honduras Sun night through
Tue morning. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern
basin early Wed, and reach from the Windward Passage to northern
Gulf of Honduras Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N61W and
continues southwestward across the central Bahamas to the
Florida Keys. To the east, a cold front extends from 31N26W to
20N46W. 1018 mb high pressure is centered between the two
boundaries near 28N40W. Please read the Special Features section
for details on winds and seas these two features are producing.
Large N to NE swell continues to reach the north coasts of the
Greater Antilles and northern Leeward Islands, where seas are
7-9 ft.

A 1023 mb high pressure located NE of the Madeira Islands,
anchors a ridge extending SW into the eastern tropical Atlantic.
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are over the Cabo Verde Islands
with fresh NE winds extending across the tropical Atlantic S of
18N. Seas there are 8 to 10 ft in NW to N swell.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front through the Bahamas to
the Florida Keys will continue to move quickly ESE across the
northern waters, and drag the front from near 28N55W to the
southern Bahamas by Sun evening, then dissipate. During this
time, gale-force SW to W winds are expected ahead of the front,
N of 28.5N, and W gales behind the front N of 30N and E of 67W.
Moderate to large N to NE swell currently dominating the
regional waters will gradually subside through Sun night to the
S of 25N, while seas to the N of 25N will remain 10 ft and
higher through early next week. Another cold front will enter
the far NW waters Mon, then continue SE, reaching the NW Bahamas
Tue morning, and from near 29N55W to the Windward Passage by Thu
morning.

$$
Stripling
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net