[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140545
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Feb 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

Expect NE gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet
to 11 feet, are from 11N to 12N between 74W and 76W. These
conditions are forecast to last for the next 12 hours or so. Strong
NE trade winds will be covering the rest of the south central
Caribbean Sea through Thursday. The wind speeds will be pulsing
briefly to gale force off the coast of Colombia each night through
Friday, as current north central Gulf of Mexico high pressure moves
toward the western Atlantic Ocean.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
nearn06N10W, to 01N17W. The ITCZ continues from 01N17W, to the
Equator along 20W, to 01S30W, and to 01S40W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 08N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 27N87W, about 190 nm to the
southnof the Florida Panhandle. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow
spans the Gulf of Mexico.

Fresh NW winds are in the NW Gulf in the wake of the front. Moderate
to fresh E to SE winds are to the east of the front. Fresh to strong
east winds, and sea heights that are reaching to 8 feet, are in the
Straits of Florida.

The sea heights have been ranging from 4 feet to 7 feet in the SE
Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights have been ranging from 6 feet to 8
feet in the rest of the eastern half of the Gulf. The sea heights
have been ranging from 4 feet to 6 feet in the SW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico. The sea heights have been ranging from 2 feet to 4 feet
in the rest of the western half of the Gulf. Moderate or slower
anticyclonic wind flow is from 91W eastward. Mostly fresh to some
strong SE winds cover the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure will move E of the area by Tue. Strong S return flow
has developed in the NW Gulf tonight and will prevail through Tue
afternoon. Winds at times may near gale force. The next cold front
will emerge off of the Texas coast Thu morning, with strong N winds
behind it spreading across the western and central Gulf behind it
into the weekend. Gale conditions are likely near Tampico, Mexico,
Thu evening and offshore Veracruz, Mexico, Thu night into Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING.

Near gale-force NE winds are within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia
between 73W and 77W. Strong NE winds are elsewhere within 230 nm of
the coast of Colombia between 73W and 78W. Fresh NE winds are within
345 nm of the remainder of the coast of Colombia between 68W and 80W.
Moderate to fresh NE winds have been in the eastern one-third of the
area, and in the western one-third of the area. The sea heights have
been ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet in the areas of the
comparatively fastest wind speeds. The sea heights have been ranging
from 5 feet to 8 feet in the rest of the central one-third of the
area, and in the eastern one-third of the area. The sea heights have
been ranging from 4 feet to 6 feet in the western one-third of the
Caribbean Sea.

High pressure is behind the cold front that just moved through the
Gulf of Mexico and in the Caribbean Sea. Shallow moisture and
isolated to widely scattered passing rainshowers are moving through
the Caribbean Sea with the trade wind flow.

Strong to gale-force winds have been near the coast of Colombia.
Fresh to strong trade winds have been covering the remainder of the
central and eastern sections of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally
strong winds have been in the Windward Passage, between Jamaica and
eastern Cuba, and in the lee of Cuba. The sea heights have been
ranging from 10 feet to 14 feet in the south central Caribbean Sea
and mostly closer to Colombia, from 9 feet to 10 feet elsewhere from
Hispaniola southward, from 8 feet to 9 feet in the Windward Passage
and between Jamaica and eastern Cuba, reaching 8 feet in the Gulf of
Honduras, and from 5 feet to 7 feet in the remainder of the area.

Areas of shallow moisture, that are embedded in the trade wind flow,
are moving through the area. Expect isolated to widely scattered
passing rainshowers. The comparatively most intense precipitation
with the greatest amount of coverage has been happening from Jamaica
northwestward and westward.

Fresh to strong NE to E trades over the south central Caribbean will
prevail through Thu. Winds will pulse briefly to gale force off the
coast of Colombia each night through Fri. A cold front from eastern
Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras has dissipated. Elsewhere, large E
swell with seas to 10 ft is over the tropical N Atlantic. Winds and
seas will diminish slowly into Wed night. A building ridge north of
the area will maintain fresh to strong trades across the Caribbean
through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N64W to 22N72W in the SE Bahamas.
A surface trough is from 160 nm to 210 nm to the northwest of the
cold front. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 14 feet from the
Bahamas northward and from the cold front northwestward.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 90 nm to the east of the cold front from 29N northward.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 75 nm on either side
of the rest of the cold front. Isolated moderate to locally strong
is from the surface trough northwestward. Strong to near gale-force
W winds have been from 29N northward from the cold front westward.
Fresh SW-to-W winds have been from 22N to 29N between 60W and 71W.
Fresh NE winds are elsewhere from 25N southward. Moderate NE winds
are from 25N northward from 30W eastward.

A cold front passes through 31N29W to 29N35W. A dissipating
cold front continues from 29N35W, to 27N48W and 28N55W. A 1030 mb
high pressure center is near 35N38W. Precipitation: rainshowers
are possible from 20N northward between 20W and 60W. The sea heights
have been ranging from 7 feet to 10 feet between 30W and 40W. The
sea heights have been ranging from 4 feet to 8 feet from 30W
eastward. The sea heights have been ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet
from 22N southward from 40W westward. The sea heights have been
ranging from 6 feet to 9 feet from 22N northward between 40W and 50W.
The sea heights have been ranging from 4 feet to 8 feet in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Strong NE winds have been from
05N to 22N between 19W and 55W. Strong and faster S wind speeds
have been from 25N northward between 53W and 64W.

A cold front from Bermuda to the Turks and Caicos will move east and
out of the basin through mid-week. N of 26N, strong winds and rough
seas will prevail into Tue night. A building ridge north of the area
will strengthen the trades south of 25N on Wed night through Fri.

$$
mt/sk
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