[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101656
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Mar 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1655 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N35W
to the Leeward Islands. Strong NW to W winds behind the front
prevail north of 25N. These winds will shift eastward through this
evening and strengthen to gale force N of 29N, then gradually
lift north of the area Sat morning. Currently, seas up to 17 ft
are found ahead and behind the frontal boundary. Large NW to N
swell producing very rough seas covers the majority of the west
and central subtropical North Atlantic. Seas in excess of 12 ft
are currently observed between 27W and 70W, reaching as far south
as 21N. Seas in the area of gale force winds will build to 18 ft
by this evening. The swell from this event will continue to
propagate SE and gradually abate through the weekend.

SW Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the offshore
waters of the SE United States this afternoon and move eastward
over the next few days. A strengthening low pressure system north
of the area and tightening pressure gradient will support strong
to near gale force winds ahead and behind the frontal boundary,
mainly north of 25N. Gale force winds will develop ahead of the
frontal boundary early Sat morning through Sun, primarily north of
28N. Seas will quickly build to near 13 ft Sat ahead of the front
and to near 23 ft by Sun behind the front. Seas greater than 12
ft will remain north of 25N. Winds and seas will abate early next
week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on the gale and swell events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N18W. The ITCZ extends from
04N18W to 02N35W to 01N50W. Isolated to scattered moderate
convection is observed within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ..

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is entering the NW Gulf of Mexico waters, but there
is no deep convection associated with this boundary. Overall, a
weak high pressure regime dominates the basin maintaining fairly
tranquil weather conditions. Light to locally strong anticyclonic
winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, a cold front moving across northern Florida and
the Big Bend Area will cause moderate northerly winds at the
northeastern Gulf through tonight. Another cold front is forecast
to approach the northern Gulf late Sat night and Sun, inducing
moderate southerly flow across the entire Gulf. It should enter
the northern Gulf Sun night, then sinks southward through Tue. In
response, fresh to strong with locally near-gale northerly winds
are expected behind the front for much of the Gulf. Gale winds are
possible at the central and southeastern Gulf. This front is
going to move southeast of the region near midweek.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating cold front extends from just south of Hispaniola to
the Leeward Islands. No deep convection is associated with this
feature. In the remainder of the Caribbean Sea, except for a few
shallow patches of moisture, relatively dry air dominates. A weak
pressure gradient sustains light to moderate easterly winds across
the basin, with the strongest winds occurring off NW Colombia,
south of Hispaniola and Cuba and the Windward Passage. Seas in the
3-6 ft range prevail across the Caribbean.

For the forecast, a cold front extends southwestward from near the
central Azores across 31N34W and the Leeward Islands into the
northeastern Caribbean Sea. It will continue to sink southward
through tonight and gradually dissipate Sat. Large NW to N swell
accompanying the front will dominate the regional Atlantic waters
and move through the NE Caribbean passages through Sat then
gradually subside Sun through Mon. Gentle to moderate trade winds
will dominate the basin for remainder of the forecast period,
except for moderate to fresh winds in the southeastern and south-
central Caribbean and fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of
Honduras Sun night through Mon morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale
warning and associated high seas across the Atlantic forecast
waters this week.

A cold front extends from 31N35W to the Leeward Islands. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen ahead of the
frontal boundary, north of 24N and west of 33W. Fresh to strong
southerly winds are evident on scatterometer satellite wind data ahead
of the cold front, north of 20N and west of 30W. Fresh to strong
westerly winds are also present behind the frontal boundary,
mainly north of 23N and east of 68W. Seas are 10-17 ft in the
areas described, with the highest seas occurring near 27N57W and
31N35W. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient is increasing off NE
Florida as a low pressure and frontal boundary approaches the
region, resulting in moderate to fresh southwest winds north of
29N and west of 77W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Light to
moderate winds and moderate seas prevail in the rest of the
tropical Atlantic due to an expansive subtropical ridge.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold fornt extends southwestward from
near the central Azores across 31N35W through the Leeward
Islands. It will continue to sink southward through tonight and
weaken. Fresh to strong W to NW winds N of 25N and E of 70W will
increase to strong to gale-force as they shift to the northeast
forecast waters Fri afternoon through night. Large NW to N swell
in the wake of the front is producing seas of 12-17 ft to the N of
20N and E of about 73W early this morning, and will dominate
regional waters through Sat night before beginning to slowly
subside. The next cold front is forecast to move off the
southeastern U.S. coast by Fri evening, bringing strong to near
gale-force SW to W winds ahead of it to waters east of Florida.
This front will move eastward across the area during the weekend,
with minimal gale- force winds expected ahead of the front Sat
through Sun, with gales developing behind the front early Sun
through early Mon. Yet another cold front is expected to move off
the southeastern U.S. coast early Mon and reach from near 31N63W
through the central Bahamas by late Tue.

$$
DELGADO
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