[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Feb 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning:

Fresh to strong NE to E trades over the south-central Caribbean
will begin to expand across the central Caribbean through Thu.
Winds will pulse briefly to gale force off the coast of Colombia
each night through Fri as high pressure currently located over
the central Gulf of Mexico moves toward the western Atlantic.
Seas will range from 8 to 11 ft with the strongest winds.
Scatterometer data from this morning showed NE of 25 to 30 kt
within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia.

Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Liberia near 06N10W and continues SW to near 02N17W. The ITCZ
extends westward from 02N17W to 00N35W to the Brazilian coast at
02N51W. No significant convection.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, a 1021 mb high pressure located near 28N90W
dominates the Gulf waters. Under the influence of this system, a
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted with the exception
moderate to fresh SE winds near the Veracruz area. Seas are
generally 2 to 4 ft except 4 to 6 ft over the SE Gulf, including
the Yucatan Channel. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted over
the SE Gulf near the coast of western Cuba. Low level clouds are
moving northward over the western Gulf.

For the forecast, the high pressure will quickly build into and
slide E across the basin tonight through Tue. Southerly return
flow will develop tonight in the NW Gulf, becoming strong W of
92W through Tue afternoon. The next cold front will emerge off of
the Texas coast Thu morning, with strong N winds behind it
spreading across the western and central Gulf through the end of
the week. Gale conditions are possible near Tampico Thu evening
and offshore of Veracruz Thu night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please
read the Special Features section for details.

A dissipating stationary front extends southwestward from eastern
Cuba across the Cayman Islands to the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated
to scattered showers are possible along the frontal boundary. The
most recent scatterometer data provided observations of moderate
to fresh N winds in the wake of the front with seas of 4 to 5 ft.
High pressure behind the front centered in the north-central Gulf
of Mexico dominates most of Cuba and the NW Caribbean. Moderate
to fresh trades dominate the remainder of the basin with seas of
5 to 8 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the lee of Cuba and in the Windward
Passage. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is moving
across the basin E of the front producing isolated to scattered
passing showers.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E trades over the south
central Caribbean will begin to expand across the central Caribbean
through Thu. Winds will pulse briefly to gale force off the coast
of Colombia each night through Fri. A cold front from eastern
Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras will dissipate tonight. Elsewhere,
large E swell with seas to 10 ft is over the tropical N Atlantic.
Winds and seas will slowly diminish there through Wed. A building
ridge north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trades
across the Caribbean Thu and Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from west of Bermuda across
the SE Bahamas into eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are flaring up ahead of the front mainly N of 27N
between the front and 63W. Winds have diminished below gale
force ahead of the front, and now mainly fresh to strong winds
prevail on either side of the front N of 28N W of the front and N
of 25N ahead of the front. Seas of 12 to 15 ft in NW swell follow
the front mainly N of 29N while seas of 8-12 ft are noted
elsewhere W of the front to about 77W and E of the Bahamas. Cold
air stratocumulus clouds are observed on satellite imagery in
the wake of the front. A tongue of cold air is noted over south
Florida into central Cuba. This will likely cause the nighttime
temperature to drop in to the 50s/10 Celsius.

Another cold front enters the forecast region near 31N30W and
continues to near 28N45W. The remainder of the Atlantic is under
the influence of a 1025 mb high pressure N of the area near
30N40W. Fresh to locally strong trades are noted per scatterometer
data S of 20N with seas of 8 to 9 ft between 40W and the Lesser
Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, the first cold front will move east
and across the basin through mid-week, weakening to a shearline
along 20N Wed through Thu. Strong winds and rough seas will occur
on both sides of the front, mainly north of 25N through Tue. A
building ridge north of the area will strengthen the trades south
of 25N on Wed through Fri.

$$
GR
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