[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101029
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Mar 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Developing Gale Warning and Swell Event: A cold
front extends from 31N36W to Antigua early this morning. Gale
force SW winds east of the front and north of 28N earlier tonight
have shifted N of the area. Seas are peaking at 18 ft behind the
front near 30N59W. Large NW to N swell producing very rough seas
covers the majority of the west and central subtropical North
Atlantic. Seas in excess of 12 ft are currently observed between
30W and 73W, reaching as far south as 19N. The swell from this
event will continue to propagate SE and gradually abate through
the weekend. Strong NW to W winds behind the front prevail north
of 24N this morning. These winds will shift eastward through this
evening and strengthen to gale force N of 28N, then gradually
lift north of the area Sat morning. Seas in the area of gale force
winds will peak at 15 to 20 ft.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on the gale and swell events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 03.5N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03.5N15W to 00N40W to the
coast of NE Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted along and south of the trough to 03N between
00W and 12W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
observed from 05S to 03N between 17W and 46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough across the Yucatan Peninsula has begun to shift
westward of the peninsula and into the immediate coastal waters of
the Bay of Campeche. Fresh E to NE winds prevail across this area
to 93W. High pressure prevails across the remainder of the Gulf
waters with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Seas are 1-3 ft
across the central Gulf and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure along the Carolina coasts
extends weakly SW into the central Gulf early this morning.
A cold front is forecast to enter the northern Gulf waters this
evening, and reach from near Tampa Bay to NW Gulf early on Sat,
then dissipate by Sat evening. The next cold front will likely
enter the NW Gulf Sun night into Mon. This front is forecast to
reach the far southern Gulf Tue and move south of the Gulf Tue
night. Fresh to strong winds and building seas to 10 ft or higher
are expected immediately behind this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the central Atlantic W-SW across
Antigua, and then westward across the far northern Caribbean,
disrupting the normal pressure gradient. Fresh N-NE winds are
observed north of 17N, including the Windward and Mona Passages,
lee of Cuba and over the waters NE of Jamaica. 6-9 ft swell is
propagating through the Mona and Anegada Passages. Winds are
generally moderate with slight seas across the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue to sink southward
tonight through Fri night and gradually dissipate. Large NW to N
swell accompanying the front will dominate the regional Atlantic
waters and move through the NE Caribbean passages through Sat
then gradually subside through Mon. Gentle to moderate trade
winds will dominate the basin for remainder of the forecast
period, except for moderate to fresh winds in the southeastern and
south- central Caribbean and fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of
Honduras Sun night through Mon morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale
warning and associated high seas across the Atlantic forecast
waters this week.

A cold front extends from 31N36W to Antigua in the Leeward Islands.
Fresh to strong NW to N winds cover much of the discussion waters
behind the front. Fresh to strong SW winds are observed within
250 nm ahead of the front. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere. Large seas in NW to N swell cover the majority of the
subtropical Atlantic. Seas of 8 ft or greater are observed north
of a line from 30N24W to 15N54W to 20N71W to 27N77W. Seas are 5-8
ft elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will continue to sink
southward through Fri night and weaken. Fresh to strong W to NW
winds N of 25N and E of 70W will increase to strong to gale-force
as they shift to the northeast forecast waters Fri afternoon
through night. Large NW to N swell in the wake of the front is
producing seas of 12-17 ft to the N of 20N and E of about 73W
early this morning, and will dominate regional waters through Sat
night before beginning to slowly subside. The next cold front is
forecast to move off the southeastern U.S. coast by Fri evening,
bringing strong to near gale-force SW to W winds ahead of it to
waters east of Florida. This front will move eastward across the
area during the weekend, with minimal gale-force winds expected
ahead of the front Sat through Sun, with gales developing behind
the front early Sun through early Mon. Yet another cold front is
expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast early Mon and
reach from near 31N63W through the central Bahamas by late Tue.

$$
Stripling
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