[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Mar 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning: A new cold front will
be along 31N65W 29N70W 30N81W, in about 12 hours or so. Expect
gale-force NW winds, and sea heights that will range from 10
feet to 14 feet, from the front northward to 70W. Expect SW
gale-force winds, and sea heights that will range from 12 feet
to 16 feet, from the 30N northward between 55W and the new
cold front. The gales will continue eastward, from Wednesday
night through Thursday, between 55W and 35W. This front will
send large NW to N swell spreading through the Atlantic Ocean
from tonight through Thursday night. The sea heights are
forecast to be higher than 20 feet on Wednesday north of 29N
between 48W and 59W.

Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Events: NW swell that is
higher than 12 feet currently is affecting the waters that
are from 26N northward between 30W and 63W, with highest
seas near 16 feet near 31N48W. The current swell will be
reinforced by a new set of NW to N swell, that will be
associated with the new cold front. The new front will move
move into the area this evening. Swell in excess of 12 feet
will propagate to 20N by Thursday. The swell will impact
the Atlantic Ocean to 20N, between the central Atlantic
Ocean and the Bahamas. The swell also will impact the
NE Caribbean Sea passages and the Tropical N Atlantic
Ocean from Thursday into Friday.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
details about the gale-force winds and the swell events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Sierra Leone near 06N11W, to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues
from 03N18W, to 02N25W, to the Equator along 30W, to 01S43W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 08N southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through an Atlantic Ocean 1020 mb high
pressure center that is near 25N74W, to a Gulf of Mexico
1018 mb high pressure center that is near 26N86W. The
ridge eventually continues to the upper Texas Gulf coast.
The wind speeds are gentle, and the sea heights range from
1 foot to 3 feet. The exception is in the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico, with diurnal moderate E winds and sea heights
that range from 2 feet to 4 feet.  MVFR conditions are in
the coastal waters and the coastal plains and inland areas
from the west central coast of Florida to the deep south
of Texas.

Weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf will dominate the
area through Wed. A cold front will enter the NE Gulf on Wed
morning, and extend from the lower Florida Keys to near Mobile,
Alabama on Thu morning while dissipating. Another weak cold front
could reach the northern Gulf Coast Fri or Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The wind speeds generally are moderate, with the sea heights
ranging from 4 feet to 6 feet. The exception is for 2 feet
to 4 feet in the NW Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to E
winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 9 feet,
are in the south central Caribbean Sea, within 120 nm of
the coast of Colombia.

Moderate trades will prevail for much of the basin today,
except for fresh to locally strong in the south central
Caribbean. The pressure gradient will weaken today through
Wed as an Atlantic cold front sinks southward toward the NE
Caribbean islands. The cold front is forecast to reach the
Greater Antilles on Thu. The front will bring large N swell
through the NE Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic
waters beginning Thu and lasting into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the Special Features section, for details
about a warning for gale-force winds, and significant
swell events, that are impacting the Atlantic Ocean
during this week.

A cold front passes through 31N33W, to 28N40W, to 24N50W,
to 22N60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 75 nm on either side of the cold front,
and elsewhere from 22N northward from 66W eastward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1017 mb high pressure center
is near 19N49W, curving to 22N64W, to a 1020 mb high pressure
center that is near 25N74W. The ridge continues to a Gulf of
Mexico 1018 mb high pressure center that is near 26N86W. The
ridge eventually continues to the upper Texas Gulf coast.

A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 31N13W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward from 30W eastward.
Light to gentle winds are in the area of the surface
anticyclonic wind flow.

Fresh to strong SW winds are within 90 nm east of the front
N of 27N and E of 43W. Fresh to strong W winds are west of the
front to 62W and N of 29N. The sea heights range from 12 feet
to 16 feet from 26N northward between 30W and 63W. Moderate
trade winds are from 10N southward between 35W and 60W. Sea
heights are 8 feet or higher from 24N northward between 35W
and 65W, and from 11N to 25N between 15W and 35W. The sea
heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the waters that are
from the Greater Antilles northward to 23N. The sea heights
range from 5 feet to 7 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic
Ocean.

A cold front extends from 23N55W to 23N65W. The front will
become stationary and dissipate by tonight. Large NW to N swell
will continue to affect the NE waters through today. A second
cold front will enter the area by early this evening, and reach
from 30N55W to 26N70W to 28.5N81W by Wed morning. Gale force
winds are expected on both sides of the front tonight into Wed
N of 28N and E of 70W. Behind the front, NW winds will remain
fresh to strong through late week. A significant NW to N swell
event will follow the front, with seas of 12 to 20 ft covering
most of the waters N of 25N and E of 74W by early Wed afternoon.
Swell up to 12 ft will reach as far south as 21N by early Thu.
Looking ahead, the next cold front is forecast to move off the
southeast U.S. coast by Fri night, bringing strong winds to the
waters east of Florida.

$$
mt/gr
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