[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071027
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Mar 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: The next cold front will move south of
31N by early this evening, then extend from 31N53W to 26N70W to
28.5N81W by Wed morning. Gale force winds are expected on both
sides of the front tonight into Wed north of 27N and east of 68W
to 40W. The gales will continue eastward Wed night through Thu
between 55W and 35W. This front will send large NW to N swell
spreading across Atlantic waters tonight through Thu night. Seas
will reach over 20 ft on Wed north of 29N between 48W and 59W.

Atlantic Significant Swell Events: Prior to the event described
above, long-period NW swell over 12 ft is affecting waters N of
26N between 33W and 63W, with highest seas around 16 ft near
31N49W. The swell will be reinforced by a new set of NW to N
swell, associated with the cold front described above, which will
move into the area this evening. Swell in excess of 12 ft will
propagate as far south as 20N by Thu, impacting waters east of the
Bahamas to the central Atlantic. The swell will also impact the
NE Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters Thu into Fri.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on the gale and swell events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 0.5N25W to
01.5S45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
observed from the Equator to 07N between 08W and 27W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 02S to 03N between 27W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

1018 mb high pressure over the eastern Gulf continues to bring
rather quiescent conditions to the basin, with gentle winds and
1-3 ft seas. The exception is the eastern Bay of Campeche, where a
diurnal trough is bringing moderate E winds and 2-4 ft seas.
Areas of dense marine fog have been observed this morning within
20 nm of the coast of SW Louisiana through the middle Texas coast.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf
will dominate the area through Wed. A cold front will enter the NE
Gulf on Wed morning, and extend from the lower Florida Keys to
near Mobile, Alabama on Thu morning while dissipating. Another
weak cold front could reach the northern Gulf Coast Fri or Fri
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Winds are generally moderate across the basin with 4-6 ft seas,
except 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE to E winds
are observed over the south-central Caribbean, within 120 nm of
the coast of Colombia, where seas are 6-9 ft.

For the forecast, moderate trades will prevail for much of the
basin today, except for fresh to locally strong in the south-
central Caribbean. The pressure gradient will weaken today through
Wed as an Atlantic cold front sinks southward toward the NE
Caribbean islands. The cold front is forecast to reach the Greater
Antilles on Thu. The front will bring large N swell through the
NE Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters beginning Thu
and lasting into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale
warning and significant swell events impacting the Atlantic
forecast waters this week.

High pressure prevails over the western Atlantic, anchored by a
1018 mb high near 29N73W. A cold front extends from 31N35W to
24N50W to 23.5N63W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is
within 60 nm of the front N of 27N and E of 41W. Fresh to strong
SW winds are within 90 nm east of the front N of 27N and E of 43W.
Fresh to strong W winds are west of the front to 62W and N of
29N. Seas in the 12-16 ft range are over these waters and
discussed in the special features section above. A surface ridge
extends across the basin from the Canary Islands to 20N45W to
22N65W to 29N73W. Light to gentle winds are present within 240 nm
either side of the surface ridge axis. Moderate trades prevail S
of 10N between 35W-60W. Seas are 8 ft or greater N of 24N between
35W and 65W as well as from 11N to 25N between 15W and 35W. Seas
of 2-4 ft are noted over the waters N of the Greater Antilles to
23N, with seas of 5-7 ft elsewhere over the discussion waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending from 23N55W
to 23.5N63W will become stationary and dissipate by tonight. Large
NW to N swell will continue to affect the NE waters through today.
A second cold front will enter the area by early this evening and
reach from 30N55W to 26N70W to 28.5N81W by Wed morning. Gale force
winds are expected on both sides of the front tonight into Wed N
of 28N and E of 70W. Behind the front, NW winds will remain fresh
to strong through late week. A significant NW to N swell event
will follow the front, with seas of 12 to 20 ft covering most of
the waters N of 25N and E of 74W by early Wed afternoon. Swell up
to 12 ft will reach as far south as 21N by early Thu. Looking
ahead, the next cold front is forecast to move off the southeast
U.S. coast by Fri night, brining strong winds to waters east of
Florida.

$$
Hagen
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