[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072101
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Mar 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning: A cold front will move
south of 31N by early this evening, then extend from 31N53W to
26N70W to 28.5N81W by Wed morning. Gale force winds are expected
on both sides of the front tonight into Wed north of 27N and east
of 68W to 40W. The gales will continue eastward Wed night through
Thu between 55W and 35W. This front will send large NW to N swell
spreading across Atlantic waters tonight through Thu night. Seas
will reach over 20 ft on Wed north of 29N between 48W and 59W.

Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Events: NW swell, with seas
greater than 12 ft, is over waters N of 26N between 28W and 62W,
with highest seas around 15 ft near 31N56W. The swell will be
reinforced by a new set of NW to N swell, associated with the cold
front described above, which will move into the area this
evening. Swell in excess of 12 ft will propagate as far south as
20N by Thu, impacting waters east of the Bahamas to the central
Atlantic. The swell will also impact the NE Caribbean passages and
Tropical N Atlantic waters Thu into Fri.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on the gale and swell events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Sierra Leone near 06N11W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from
03N17W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted S of 05S E of 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted over the western Gulf with light to
gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-3 ft range over the
western Gulf and 1-2 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf
will dominate the area through Wed. A cold front will enter the NE
Gulf on Wed morning, and extend from the lower Florida Keys to
near Mobile, Alabama on Thu morning while dissipating. Another
weak cold front could reach the northern Gulf Coast Fri or Fri
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-8
ft range over the south central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trades will persist
near the coast of Colombia through tonight. Gentle to moderate
winds will prevail elsewhere tonight and Wed. The pressure
gradient will weaken across the basin on Wed as an Atlantic cold
front sinks southward toward the Caribbean islands. The cold front
is forecast to reach the Greater Antilles on Thu. The front will
bring large N swell through the NE Caribbean passages and Tropical
N Atlantic waters beginning Thu and lasting into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale
warning and significant swell events impacting the Atlantic
forecast waters this week.

A cold front extends from 31N32W to 22N60W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm of the front N of 27N. Fresh to strong
winds are noted N of 29N between 45W and 60W, and within 60 nm E
of the front and N of 29N. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere
N of 27N W of the front to 60W, and within 60 nm east of the
front. Moderate winds are noted east of 30W as well as S of 10N.
Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Aside from the area of 12
ft or greater seas, seas greater than 8 ft are over the waters N
of 23N between 25W and 65W as well as E of 30W. Elsewhere, seas of
5-7 ft are noted.

For the forecast W of 55W, westerly winds will begin to increase
across the waters N of 29N by early this evening ahead of another
cold front forecast enter the forecast region at same time. The
front will reach from 31N53W to the NW Bahamas and central Florida
by Wed morning, extending across the Greater Antilles by Thu
morning. Gale force winds are expected on either side of the front
early this evening, mainly N of 29N between 55W and 65W. Wind are
forecast to diminish below gale force over the NE waters by late
Wed morning, but strong NW winds will persist. A significant NW to
N swell event will follow the front, with seas of 12 to 20 ft
covering most of the waters N of 25N and E of 74W by early Wed
afternoon. Seas of 12 ft will reach as far south as 22N by early
Thu morning. Looking ahead, the next cold front is forecast to
move off the southeast U.S. coast by Fri night, bringing strong
winds to waters east of Florida.

$$
AL
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