[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061629
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Mar 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: The next cold front will move south of
31N late Tue, then extend from 31N61W to 28N74W to 29.5N80W late
Tue night, and reach from 31N55W to 25N73W by early Wed. Gale
force winds are expected on both sides of the front Tue night
into Wed north of 27N and east of 68W. The gales will continue
eastward late Wed into early Thu between 50W and 35W. This front
will send large N swell spreading across Atlantic waters Tue
night through Thu night. Seas will reach over 20 ft on Wed north
of 30N between 49W and 61W.

Atlantic Significant Swell Events: Prior to the event described
above, we currently have long-period NW swell propagating through
the central and eastern waters generating seas in the range of
12 to 17 ft north of 26N and between 22W and 62W with a period
of 12 to 14 seconds. The swell will not subside much before a
larger and more powerful NW to N swell, associated with the cold
front described above, moves into the area late Tue. Swell in
excess of 12 ft will propagate as far south as 20N by Thu,
impacting waters east of the Bahamas to the central Atlantic.
The swell will also impact the NE Caribbean passages and
Tropical N Atlantic waters Thu into Fri.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on the gale and swell events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W
to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W to 02S43W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 08N southward and east of
40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

No significant convection is found across the basin as weak high
pressure dominates the area. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds
prevail with seas ranging 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the area
early this week, before shifting away, allowing a weak cold
front to enter the NE Gulf late Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong E to NE winds are captured in a recent
scatterometer pass in the south-central Caribbean south of 14N
to the Colombian coast between 72W and 78W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft
in the Colombian Basin as a result of these winds. Elsewhere,
generally moderate trades prevail across the remainder of the
basin with 5 to 7 ft seas, except in the NW Caribbean, where
winds are gentle and seas are slight.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge north of
the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong
trades in the south-central Caribbean through tonight. Winds
will gradually diminish to below normal basin-wide Tue through
Wed night as an Atlantic cold front sinks southward toward the
NE Caribbean islands. The cold front is forecast to pass through
Puerto Rico and the NE Caribbean Thu. The front will bring large
N swell through the NE Caribbean passages and Tropical N
Atlantic waters beginning Thu and lasting into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale
warning and significant swell events impacting the Atlantic
forecast waters this week.

A cold front extends from 31N43W to 26N55W to 27N70W. Although
convection is gradually diminishing, an isolated shower is
possible within 100 nm ahead of the front north of 30N. Fresh to
strong NW winds with 12 to 19 ft seas are found behind the
front, while fresh to strong SW winds and seas of 10 to 15 ft
are found ahead of the front, mainly east of 52W. A
high-pressure ridge extends across the basin from the Canary
Islands near 29N15W to 22N67W to South Florida. Winds are light
within the ridge axis, although swell associated with storms
north of the area is continuing to propagate through these
latitudes in the central Atlantic. In the eastern Atlantic, a
remnant trough extends from 30N26W to 25N35W. Winds are mainly
gentle to moderate near the boundary, though seas of 12 to 14 ft
embedded in large NW swell are likely still occurring there.

For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned cold front
will move southeast through today, extending along 24N and east
of 70W by this evening. Fresh to strong W to NW winds in the
wake of the front will affect the northeast waters today and
tonight. South of the front a ridge prevail. The ridge will
weaken and reform northeast of the Bahamas into Tue as the front
dissipates. Large NW swell will impact the northeast waters
behind the front through Tue. A second cold front will enter the
area late Tue, and reach from 31N55W to 25N73W by early Wed.
Gale force winds are expected on both sides of the front Tue
night into Wed north of 27N and east of 68W. This front will
send large N swell spreading across all Atlantic waters Tue
night through Thu night. Seas will reach over 20 ft on Wed north
of 30N and east of 62W.

$$
Nepaul
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