[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060916
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Mar 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: The next cold front will move S of 31N late
Tue, then extend from 31N61W to 28N74W to 29.5N80W late Tue night,
and reach from 31N55W to 25N73W by early Wed. Gale force winds
are expected on both sides of the front Tue night into Wed N of
27N and E of 68W. The gales will continue E late Wed into early
Thu between 50W and 35W. This front will send large N swell
spreading across Atlantic waters Tue night through Thu night. Seas
will reach over 20 ft on Wed north of 30N between 49W and 61W.

Atlantic Significant Swell Events: Prior to the event described
above, we currently have long-period NW swell propagating through
the central and eastern waters generating seas in the range of
12-17 ft north of 26N and between 22W-62W with a period of 12-14
seconds. The swell will not subside much before a larger and more
powerful NW to N swell, associated with the cold front described
above, moves into the area late Tue. Swell in excess of 12 ft will
propagate as far south as 20N by Thu, impacting waters east of
the Bahamas to the central Atlantic. The swell will also impact
the NE Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters Thu into
Fri.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on the gale and swell events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 05N13W. The ITCZ continues from 05N13W to 03S40W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed within 240 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure dominates the basin. No significant convection
is observed and winds are generally gentle from the east-southeast.
Seas remain in the 2-4 ft range.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the area
early this week, before shifting away, allowing a weak cold
front to enter the NE Gulf Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong E-NE winds are noted in the south-central
Caribbean. Seas are 7-9 ft in the Colombian Basin as a result of
these winds. Winds are generally moderate to fresh from the E
across the remainder of the basin with 5-7 ft seas, except in the
NW Caribbean, where winds are gentle and seas are slight.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a high pressure
ridge extending from the NW Bahamas to 21N50W and the Colombian
diurnal low will support fresh to strong trades in the south-
central Caribbean through tonight. Winds will gradually diminish
to below normal basin-wide Tue through Wed night as an Atlantic
cold front sinks southward toward the NE Caribbean islands. The
cold front is forecast to pass through Puerto Rico and the NE
Caribbean Thu. The front will bring large N swell through the NE
Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters beginning Thu
and lasting into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale
warning and significant swell events impacting the Atlantic
forecast waters this week.

A cold front extends from 31N46W to 27N65W to 27.5N71W. An
isolated shower is possible near the front, but convection has
diminished over the last 6 hours. Northwest of the front, winds
are fresh to strong from the NW with 12-17 ft seas. Southeast of
the front, winds are strong from the SW with 10-15 ft seas, mainly
E of 52W. A high-pressure ridge extends across the basin from the
Canary Islands to 20N50W to South Florida. Winds are light within
the ridge axis, although swell associated with storms north of
the area is continuing to propagate through these latitudes in the
central Atlantic.

In the eastern Atlantic, a dissipating cold front extends from
31N26W to 25N36W. Winds are mainly gentle to moderate near the
front, though seas of 12-14 ft embedded in large NW swell are
likely still occurring there. South of the front, a 1018 mb high
centered near 26N22W dominates the pattern with gentle
anticyclonic flow and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front that currently
extends from 28N55W to 27N65W to 27.5N71W will move SE through
today. Fresh to strong NW winds behind the front will occur today
mainly N of 29N and E of 62W. The ridge will weaken and reform NE
of the Bahamas into Tue as the front dissipates along 25N. Large
NW swell will impact the NE waters behind the front through Tue. A
second cold front will enter the area late Tue, and reach from
31N55W to 25N73W by early Wed. Gale force winds are expected on
both sides of the front Tue night into Wed N of 27N and E of 68W.
This front will send large N swell spreading across all Atlantic
waters Tue night through Thu night. Seas will reach over 20 ft on
Wed north of 30N and east of 62W.

$$
Hagen
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