[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062101
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Mar 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: The next cold front will move south of
31N late Tue, then extend from 31N61W to 28N74W to 29.5N80W late
Tue night, and reach from 31N55W to 25N73W by early Wed. Gale
force winds are expected on both sides of the front Tue night
into Wed north of 27N and east of 68W. The gales will continue
eastward late Wed into early Thu between 50W and 35W. This front
will send large N swell spreading across Atlantic waters Tue
night through Thu night. Seas will reach over 20 ft on Wed north
of 30N between 49W and 61W.

Atlantic Significant Swell Events: Prior to the event described
above, we currently have long-period NW swell propagating through
the central and eastern waters generating seas in the range of
12 to 16 ft north of 27N between 30W and 62W with a period of 12
to 14 seconds. The swell will be reinforced by a new set of NW to
N swell, associated with the cold front described above, which
will move into the area late Tue. Swell in excess of 12 ft will
propagate as far south as 20N by Thu, impacting waters east of the
Bahamas to the central Atlantic. The swell will also impact the
NE Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters Thu into Fri.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on the gale and swell events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W
to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 01S45W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 08N southward and east of
30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends over the SW Gulf, with high pressure
prevailing elsewhere. Gentle to moderate winds are in the vicinity
of the trough, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in
the 1-3 ft range.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf
will dominate the area through Wed. A cold front will enter the NE
Gulf on Wed morning, and extend from the lower Florida Keys to
near Mobile, Alabama on Thu morning while dissipating. Another
cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong E to NE winds prevail over the south central
Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh winds are found elsewhere
over the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are
elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range over the south central
Caribbean, 5-6 ft over the north central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge N of the
area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades in
the south-central Caribbean through tonight. Winds will gradually
diminish to below normal basin-wide Tue through Wed night as an
Atlantic cold front sinks southward toward the NE Caribbean
islands. The cold front is forecast to reach the Greater Antilles
on Thu. The front will bring large N swell through the NE
Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters beginning Thu
and lasting into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale
warning and significant swell events impacting the Atlantic
forecast waters this week.

A cold front extends from 31N38W to 25N55W to 26N70W. Fresh to
strong winds are within 90 nm east of the front N of 28N, and west
of the front to 60W and N of 29N. Seas in the 12-16 ft range are
over these waters and discussed in the special features section
above. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere N of 24N as well as
S of 10N, with light to gentle winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas
are 8 ft or greater elsewhere N of 25N between 27W and 68W as well
as from 14N to 25N between 20W and 41W. Seas of 2-4 ft are noted
over the waters N of the greater Antilles to 25N, with seas of 5-7
ft elsewhere over the discussion waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned cold front
will move SE extending along 23N and E of 70W tonight into Tue.
Fresh to strong W to NW winds and large NW swell in the wake of
the front will affect the NE waters tonight and Tue. A second cold
front will enter the area late Tue, and reach from 31N55W to
26N70W to 28N80W by Wed morning. Gale force winds are expected on
both sides of the front Tue night into Wed N of 29N and E of 70W.
A significant swell event will follow the front, with seas of 12
to 20 ft covering most of the waters N of 25N between 40W and 73W
by early Wed afternoon.

$$
AL
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