[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Mar 05 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Long-period N to NE swell is
currently propagating through the central waters producing seas
of 12-19N from 26N to 31N between 35W-54W. This swell event will
gradually abate and shift east of 40W by Mon morning. By that
time, the next swell northerly event will push south of 31N with
seas in the 12-17 ft range propagating across the waters north
of 28N and east of 60W. By Tue evening, seas of 12-15 ft are
expected north of 28N and east of 60W. These swell events are
the result of several storm to hurricane-force low pressure
systems moving eastward across the Atlantic Ocean well to the
north of the discussion area. Looking ahead, expect another
significant swell event across the western and central Atlantic
later next week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on these swell events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwest to 07N20W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 02N30W and to 00N40W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 03S to 02N between 20W and
35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The cold front over the Gulf of Mexico has stalled, reaching
from Cedar Key, FL to the central Guld near 24N92W. Broken
clouds remain along the boundary, but no significant
precipitation is noted. Moderate NE breezes continue over the
western Gulf behind the boundary where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Seas
have decreased to 3 ft in the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to
moderate winds are elsewhere over the Gulf with 4 to 6 ft seas,
with the highest seas in the NE Gulf, noted by buoy
observations.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will weaken
tonight, with western portions drifting northward through Mon.
Weak high pressure will form across the NE Gulf late Mon, then
shift NE of the basin Wed night through Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure southeast of Bermuda
and the Colombian diurnal low supports fresh to strong winds in
the south-central Caribbean where seas are 8 to 10 ft south of
15N. Fresh winds also continue within the Gulf of Honduras, W of
85W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere moderate to fresh
trades are noted over the eastern and central Caribbean, where
seas are 6 to 8 ft, including within the Mona Passage. Gentle to
moderate trades are in the Lee of Cuba and NW Caribbean, where
seas are 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will support strong
trades across the central Caribbean through Sun morning and
fresh SE winds across the NW Caribbean west of 82W, including
the Gulf of Honduras and Yucatan Channel. Moderate NE swell will
gradually fade across the Tropical Atlantic waters and
northeastern Caribbean passages through Sun. Winds will
gradually diminish to below normal basin-wide Tue through Thu as
an Atlantic cold front sinks southward toward the NE Caribbean
islands.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on an
ongoing significant swell event. Additional swell events will
continue to impact the Atlantic forecast waters next week.

A 1020 mb high center analyzed near 25N60W dominates most of the
Atlantic basin. An associated ridge extends westward to across
the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas and SE Florida. A
cold front entered the western Atlantic stretching from 31N75W
to northern FL. Low pressure associated with this front has
helped to tighten the pressure gradient offshore Florida,
supporting fresh S to SW winds north of 29N between 55W and 75W,
where seas are 6-9 ft. Moderate to locally fresh E winds are
also noted north of Hispaniola, where seas are 5-7 ft.

A cold front extends from near 31N36W southwestward to 29N40W
and to near 27N51W. Fresh SW winds are ahead of the front to
near 27W, where seas are 9-12 ft. Fresh NW winds are behind the
front north of 27N. High pressure is present elsewhere over the
central and eastern sections of the area. Seas remain 7 to 9 ft
over most of the basin east of 50W. The exception is in the deep
tropics south of 15N and west of 45W, where locally fresh trades
are allowing for 8 to 10 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds will
prevail N of 29N ahead of a cold front currently across the NE
Florida coastal waters. As the front moves SE through Mon, fresh
to strong SW winds will shift eastward ahead of it. The ridge
will weaken and reform NE of the Bahamas late Mon through Tue as
the front dissipates along 25N. Large NW swell will impact the
NE waters behind the front late Sun through Tue night. Then a
large N to NE swell will move south of 31N and spread across all
Atlantic waters through Thu with the next frontal system
approaching from the north. Gale conditions are expected by late
Tue across the NE portion of the area.

$$
Mora
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net