[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Mar 05 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Long-period N to NE swell is
currently propagating through the central waters producing seas
of 12-19N from 26N to 31N between 40W-54W. This seas will shift
to east of 55W by this evening. This swell event will gradually
abate and shift east of 40W by Mon morning. By that time, the
next swell northerly event will push south of 31N with seas in
the 12-17 ft range propagating across the waters north of 28N and
east of 60W. By Tue evening, seas of 12-15 ft are expected north
of 28N and east of 60W. These swell events are the result of
several storm to hurricane-force low pressure systems moving
eastward across the Atlantic Ocean well to the north of the
discussion area. Looking ahead, expect another significant swell
event across the western and central Atlantic later next week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on these swell events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the border
of Senegal and Gambia near 14N16W, then continues south-southwestward
to 04N20W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it
transitions to the ITCZ to 01N30W, then to below the Equator at
34W and to near 01S45W. Increasing scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between
25W-34W. Scattered moderate convection is within convection
is from the Equator to 02N and between 15W-20W.

Scattered moderate is noted well to the south of the coast of
Africa from the Equator to 04N and between 03W-15W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from north-central Florida southwestward to
27N87W, where it transitions to a stationary front and continues
southwestward to an attendant low near 20N93W. No significant
precipitation is noted with this boundary. Mainly moderate NE
to E winds are north and northwest of the frontal boundary,
except in the west-central and southwestern Gulf where lighter
winds of light to gentle and W to NW in direction are noted.
Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the frontal
boundary, with the exception of the south-central waters where
fresh SE to S winds are noted. Per latest buoy observations and
recent altimeter data passes, seas are in the 4-7 ft range
except for higher seas of 6-8 ft over the NE Gulf, the north-
central Gulf and over the southeastern Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will stall and
weaken tonight, with western portions drifting northward through
Mon. Weak high pressure will form across the NE Gulf late Mon
then shift NE of the basin Wed night through Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western
Atlantic and the Colombian diurnal low continues to support
fresh to strong NE to E trade winds over the central and western
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela and within the Gulf
of Honduras west of 84W. A recent ASCAT data pass nicely
highlighted these winds over the central Caribbean, with a good
concentration of 25-30 kt wind vectors from 12 to 14N and between
74W-76W. Another recent ASCAT data pass indicates fresh to
strong E to SE winds in the Gulf Honduras. Trade winds elsewhere
are in the moderate to fresh range. Seas are in the 8-11 ft
range over the south-central Caribbean, 6-9 ft from 15N to 18N
between 68W-80W, south of 15N between 68W-72W and also north of
18N west of 85W and 5-7 ft elsewhere including the Gulf of
Honduras, except for slightly lower seas of 4-6 ft north of 18N
between 80W-85W.

Patches of low-level moisture moving westward with the trade
wind flow are noted north of 12N east of 70W and from 12N to 18N
between 70W-81W. Isolated showers are possible with the low
cloud streamers coming off the Lesser Antilles islands.
Scattered to broken low clouds, with possible isolated to
scattered showers are confined to the southwestern Caribbean
south of 13N and west of 81W to near the Central America coast.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
southeast of Bermuda and the Colombian diurnal low will support
strong trades across the central Caribbean through Sun morning,
and fresh to strong SE winds across the northwestern Caribbean
west of 82W, including the Gulf of Honduras and Yucatan Channel.
Moderate NE swell will gradually fade across the Tropical
Atlantic waters and northeastern Caribbean passages through Sun.
Winds will gradually diminish to below normal basin-wide Tue
through Thu as an Atlantic cold front sinks southward toward the
northeastern Caribbean islands.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on an
ongoing significant swell event. Additional swell events will
continue to impact the Atlantic forecast waters next week.

A 1019 mb high center is analyzed near 25N56W. An associated
ridge extends westward to across the western Atlantic, including
the Bahamas and SE Florida. Low pressure just offshore New
England has helped to tightened the pressure gradient offshore
Florida, supporting fresh S to SW winds west of 68W and north of
28N, where seas are 7-10 ft. The strongest winds are noted north
of the Bahamas. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are also noted
north of Hispaniola, where seas are 5-7 ft.

A cold front is extends from near 31N40W southwestward to 28N46W
and to near 28N54W. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the
to near 35W, where seas are 9-12 ft. Farther east, a trough
attached to a weak cold front north of the area continues to
drift eastward and now extends from near 30N22W southwestward to
27N33W and to near 22N40W. No significant winds or precipitation
is associated with this trough, however, seas remain elevated at
9-10 ft seas north of about 25N between the trough and 37W. High
pressure is present elsewhere over the central and eastern
sections of the area.

Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds along with seas of
6 to 8 ft continue to the east of 57W. Latest ASCAT data shows
fresh trade winds confined to south of 16N and between 45W and
the Lesser Antilles, where seas are 8-10 ft due to a long-period
N to NE swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds will
prevail N of 29N ahead of a cold front across the NE Florida and
Georgia coastal waters this evening. As the front moves SE
through Mon, fresh to strong SW winds will shift eastward ahead
of it. The ridge will weaken and reform NE of the Bahamas late
Mon through Tue as the front dissipates along 25N. Large NW swell
will impact the NE waters behind the front late Sun through Tue
night, then large N to NE swell will move south of 31N and spread
across all Atlantic waters through Thu.


$$
Aguirre
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