[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Mar 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Long period swell will enter
the forecast waters this afternoon with seas building to 12 to
20 ft north of 27N and east of 55W by this evening. This swell
event will gradually abate and shift east of 40W by Mon morning.
At this time, the next swell event will push south of 31N with
seas in the 12 to 17 ft range propagating across the waters
north of 28N and east of 60W. By Tue evening, seas of 12 to 15
ft are expected north of 28N and east of 60W. These swell events
are the result of several storm to hurricane force low pressure
systems moving eastward across the Atlantic Ocean north of the
forecast area. Looking ahead, expect another significant swell
event across the west and central Atlantic later next week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on these swell events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the border of
Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 13N16W, then continues
southwestward to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to
01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N
southward  between 10W to 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to 28N86W, where
it transitions to a stationary front and stretches southwestward
to an attendant low near 21N93W. No significant precipitation is
noted with this boundary. Fresh northerly winds are noted across
the basin behind the front, while fresh SW winds are found ahead
of the front. Seas remain elevated over the eastern Gulf,
ranging from 5 to 8 ft north of 25N and east of 89W. Elsewhere,
seas are 4 to 6 ft, except for the offshore waters of Texas and
western Louisiana coast where seas are below 4 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will stall later
today. resh SW winds and rough seas southeast of the front will
diminish today. Benign winds and seas will then continue into
the middle of the coming week as high pressure prevails NE of
the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a ridge across the western
Atlantic and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to
strong trade winds over the central and western Caribbean,
including the Gulf of Venezuela and within the Gulf of Honduras
west of 84W. The strongest winds are observed on a recent
scatterometer pass just offshore Colombia south of 14N between
73W and 76W. Seas are 8 to 11 ft over the south-central
Caribbean and 8 to 9 ft in the far NW Caribbean. Seas are
generally 5 to 8 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
south of Bermuda and the Colombian diurnal low will support
strong trades across the central Caribbean through tonight.
Strong to near-gale SE winds will persist in the NW Caribbean
west of 82W, including the Gulf of Honduras and Yucatan Channel
though tonight also. Moderate NE swell will gradually fade
across the Tropical Atlantic waters and northeastern Caribbean
passages through Sun. Winds will gradually diminish to below
normal basin-wide Tue through Wed as an Atlantic cold front
sinks southward toward the NE Caribbean islands.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the
significant swell event and the systems supporting these marine
conditions. Additional swell events will continue to impact the
Atlantic forecast waters next week.

A 1020 mb high pressure centered near 27N61W extends a ridge
across the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas and SE
Florida. Low pressure over the eastern U.S. is tightening the
pressure gradient offshore Florida, supporting fresh S to SW
winds west of 68W and north of 28N, where seas are 7 to 10 ft.
The strongest winds are noted north of
the Bahamas. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are also noted
north of Hispaniola, where seas are 5 to 7 ft.

A cold front is draped across the central Atlantic, with a
portion of the boundary sinking into our forecast waters to 29N
between 44W and 61W. A scatterometer pass this morning reveals
mainly fresh to strong SW to W winds are ahead of the cold
front, north of 28N between 40W and 55W, where seas are 9 to 12
ft. Farther east, a trough attached to a weak cold front north
of the area continues to drift eastward and now extends from
31N22W to 22N39W. No significant winds or precipitation is
associated with this boundary; however, seas remain elevated,
with 9 to 11 ft seas north of 25N.

Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades prevail with seas generally
7 to 8 ft east of 57W.  The strongest winds are observed on a
scatterometer pass this morning south of 15N and west of 40W to
the Lesser Antilles, where seas are up to 9 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S to SW winds will
prevail offshore Florida and N of the Bahamas through tonight
ahead of a cold front forecast to exit the U.S. southeast coast
late today. Afterward, fresh to strong SW winds will shift
eastward this weekend, ahead of the front, remaining north of
29N as the surface ridge settles along 24N. The ridge will
reform NE of the Bahamas late Mon through Tue as the front
dissipates along 24N. Large NW swell will impact the NE waters
behind the front late Sun through Wed.

$$
Nepaul
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