[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041010
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Mar 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Long period swell will enter
the forecast waters by this afternoon with seas building to 12 to
20 ft N of 27N and E of 55W by this evening. This swell event
will gradually abate and shift E of 40W by Mon morning. At this
time, the next swell event will push south of 31N with seas in
the 12 to 17 ft range propagating across the waters N of 28N E of
60W. By Tue evening, seas of 12 to 15 ft are expected N of 28N
and E of 60W. These swell events are the result of several storm
to hurricane force low pressure systems moving eastward across the
Atlantic Ocean N of the forecast area. Looking ahead, expect
another significant swell event across the west and central
Atlantic later next week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on these swell events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the border of
Guinea-Bissau and Guinea near 11N16W, then continues
southwestward to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to
01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 04N between
10W-50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 30N85W to 25N90W, then becomes
stationary from that point to 20N94W. No significant precipitation
is noted with this boundary. Moderate to fresh NW winds will
continue over Bay of Campeche through this morning. Fresh NW winds
are behind the front over the remainder of the basin. Seas remain
elevated over the Gulf, with 8 to 9 ft sea north of 25N and east
of 89W, and 5 to 7 ft seas elsewhere. Seas have diminished to
below 4 ft offshore the TX and western Louisiana coast.

For the forecast, the front will stall today. Winds and seas will
continue subsiding through this afternoon. Benign winds and seas
will then continue into early next week as high pressure builds
across the basin in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a ridge across the western
Atlantic and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to
strong trade winds over the central and western Caribbean, with
the strongest winds between 68W and 74W, including the Gulf of
Venezuela and within the Gulf of Honduras west of 84W. Winds are
near-gale force within the Gulf of Venezuela and just offshore
Colombia. Seas are 8 to 10 ft over the south-central Caribbean and
8 to 9 ft in the far NW Caribbean. Seas are generally 5 to 8 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and the Colombian diurnal low will support
strong trades across the central Caribbean through tonight. Strong
to near-gale SE winds will prevail in the NW Caribbean west of
82W and north of 16N, including the Gulf of Honduras and Yucatan
Channel though tonight also. Moderate long-period N swell will
impact the northeastern Caribbean passages today.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the
significant swell event and the systems supporting these marine
conditions. Additional swell events will continue to impact the
Atlantic forecast waters next week.

High pressure of 1018 mb centered over the western Atlantic near
26N63W extends a ridge across the western Atlantic, including the
Bahamas and SE Florida. Low pressure over the eastern U.S. is
tightening the pressure gradient offshore Florida, supporting
fresh to strong southerly winds west of 74W and north of 28N,
where seas are 8 to 10 ft. The strongest winds are noted north of
the Bahamas. Fresh SE winds are also noted north of Hispaniola,
where seas are up to 6 ft.

A cold front is approaching the central Atlantic, with a portion
of the boundary sinking into our forecast waters along 30N between
50W and 62W. Strong to near-gale SW-W winds are ahead of the cold
front, north of 28N between 40W and 55W, where seas are 9 to 12
ft. Farther east, a weak cold front and trough continues to drift
eastward and now extends from 31N24W to 24N47W. No significant
winds or precipitation is associated with this boundary; however,
seas remain elevated, with 9 to 11 ft seas north of 25N.

Elsewhere, fresh trades were noted south of 15N and west of 35W
to the Lesser Antilles, allowing for 7 to 9 ft seas. Although
high pressure is allowing for winds of moderate speeds or less
elsewhere across the basin, seas above 8 ft remain mainly east
of 57W.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong S winds will prevail
offshore Florida and N of the Bahamas through tonight ahead of a
cold front forecast to exit the U.S. southeast coast today.
Afterward, fresh to strong SW winds will progress eastward this
weekend ahead of the front, remaining north of 29N as the surface
ridge settles along 24N.

$$
ERA
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