[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051019
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Mar 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Long-period N to NE swell is
currently propagating through the central waters producing seas
of 12-19N from 26N to 31N between 35W-53W. The swell will
gradually abate and shift east of 40W by Mon morning. By that
time, the next swell northerly event will push south of 31N with
seas in the 12-17 ft range propagating across the waters north of
28N and east of 60W. By Tue evening, seas of 12-15 ft are expected
north of 28N and east of 60W. These swell events are the result
of several storm to hurricane-force low pressure systems moving
eastward across the Atlantic well to the north of the discussion
area. Looking ahead, expect another significant swell event across
the western and central Atlantic by midweek.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on these swell events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W and continues southwest to 09N19W. The
ITCZ continues from 09N19W to 01S43W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted S of 03N between 10W-47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from 29N83W to 25N92W. No significant
precipitation is noted with this front at this time. Moderate NE
breezes continue over the western Gulf behind the boundary. Seas
of 3 ft prevail in the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate winds
are elsewhere over the Gulf with 4 to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will weaken
tonight, with western portions drifting northward through Mon.
Weak high pressure will form across the NE Gulf late Mon, then
shift NE of the basin Wed night through Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure southeast of Bermuda
and the Colombian diurnal low supports fresh to strong winds in
the south-central Caribbean where seas are 8 to 10 ft south of
15N. Fresh winds also continue within the Gulf of Honduras, W of
85W, where seas to 5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades are
noted over the eastern and central Caribbean, where seas are 6 to
8 ft, including within the Mona Passage. Gentle to moderate trades
are in the Lee of Cuba and NW Caribbean, where seas are 3 to 5
ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
southeast of Bermuda and the Colombian diurnal low will support
strong trades across the central Caribbean through this morning,
and fresh SE winds across the the NW Caribbean west of 84W,
including the Gulf of Honduras and Yucatan Channel. Moderate NE
swell will gradually fade across the Tropical Atlantic waters and
northeastern Caribbean passages through today. Winds will
gradually diminish to below normal basin-wide Tue through Thu as
an Atlantic cold front sinks southward toward the NE Caribbean
islands.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on an
ongoing significant swell event. Additional swell events will
continue to impact the Atlantic forecast waters next week.

A 1019 mb high center analyzed near 25N62W dominates most of the
Atlantic basin. Its ridge extends westward to across the western
Atlantic, including the Bahamas and E Florida. A cold front
entered the western Atlantic stretching from 31N75W to northern
FL. Low pressure associated with this front has helped to tighten
the pressure gradient offshore Florida, supporting fresh S to SW
winds north of 29N between 54W and 70W, where seas are 8-10 ft.
Moderate to fresh E winds are also noted north of Hispaniola,
where seas are 5-6 ft.

To the east, a cold front extends from near 31N33W southwestward
to 26N48W. Fresh SW winds are ahead of the front to near 27W,
where seas are 9-12 ft. Fresh NW winds are along the front north
of 28N. High pressure prevails elsewhere over the central and
eastern sections of the area. Seas remain 7 to 9 ft over most of
the basin east of 50W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds will
prevail N of 29N ahead of a cold front currently across the NE
Florida coastal waters. As the front moves SE through Mon, fresh
to strong SW winds will shift eastward ahead of it. The ridge will
weaken and reform NE of the Bahamas late Mon through Tue as the
front dissipates along 25N. Large NW swell will impact the NE
waters behind the front late Sun through Tue night, then large N
to NE swell will move south of 31N and spread across all Atlantic
waters through Thu with the next frontal system approaching from
the north. Gale conditions are expected by Tue night across the NE
portion or the area. Seas will peak to 20 ft near and north of
30N57W on Wed.

$$
ERA
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