[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020551
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Mar 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front that extends from
near 31N47W to 25N65W will continue eastward across the central
Atlantic through Fri. Strong to near-gale force winds accompany
the front north of 27N between 40W and 55W. Gale force W winds
were noted in a recent scatterometer pass north of 29N between
the cold front and 51W. Gale force winds will lift north of 31N
through Thur morning. Additional pulses of NW swell will follow
the front. Please see the paragraph below for details on wave
heights.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Satellite altimeter
data from throughout the day showed seas over 12 ft, mainly
north of 24N and east of 60W. Seas are as high as 19 ft near
31N50W and were generated by a complex low pressure located well
to the north of the discussion area. Expect seas above 12 ft to
be present north of 25N and between 55W and 43W, and north of
21N, east of 43N through tomorrow. Seas will linger through Fri
morning, subsiding slightly through the weekend.

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressure over
Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds over the
south-central Caribbean through Sat. These winds will expand
northward into the north-central basin on Thu. Pulsing winds to
minimal gale-force are expected tonight and Thu night off the
coast of Colombia. Seas will build to 11 or 12 ft with the
strongest winds.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to move
off the Texas coast Thu night. The front will reach near
Apalachicola, FL, to the central Bay of Campeche Fri evening
before stalling and weakening later Fri night into early Sat.
Near-gale force S winds and rough seas will precede the front
across the northern Gulf Thu evening through Fri morning along
with seas of 8-12 ft. Fresh to strong NW winds are expected
behind the front over the western Gulf, except for minimal gale
force offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico Fri. Seas are
forecast to build to 8-11 ft offshore Veracruz.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
the Atlantic swell event and on the Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 05N20W, where
the latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to
the ITCZ. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 00N30W to 01N40W to
00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 04N between
the west coast of Africa and 20W. Similar convection is also
noted along the ITCA near the coast of Brazil.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please read
the Special Features section for more details.

High pressure extends from the western Atlantic to the central
Gulf. The associated anticyclonic wind flow is allowing for
generally moderate to fresh southerly winds across the basin.
Seas are in the range of 3-5 ft, except for slightly higher seas
of 6-8 ft within 150 nm offshore the northern Yucatan peninsula
in an area of stronger winds.

For the forecast, the above-mentioned high pressure will
continue to dominate the Gulf waters through tonight. Moist
southerly Flow may favor the development of marine fog across
portions of the northern Gulf tonight into early Thu morning. SE
to S winds will increase to fresh to strong Thu, ahead of a cold
front forecast to move off the Texas coast Thu night. The front
will reach from Apalachicola, FL, to the central Bay of Campeche
Fri evening before stalling and weakening later Fri night into
early Sat. Near-gale force S winds, with frequent gusts to gale
force, will precede the front across the northern Gulf Thu
evening through Fri morning. Strong NW winds are expected behind
the front over the western Gulf, except for minimal gale force
offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico Fri. Winds and seas should
subside by Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the offshore waters of Colombia.
Please read the Special Features section for more details.

The latest ASCAT data passes indicate fresh to strong trade
winds over the south-central Caribbean, Gulf of Honduras west of
84W, and within the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh winds
over the remainder of the Caribbean, except south of Cuba to 17N
between 76W and 81W, where gentle winds are noted. Seas are 7-10
ft over the south-central Caribbean and 4-6 ft elsewhere, except
6-8 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 1-3 ft in the lee of Cuba,
near the Cayman Islands, and also between Jamaica and eastern
Cuba.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and the Colombian diurnal low will support
fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through
Sat. Pulsing winds to minimal gale-force are expected tonight and
Thu night off the coast of Colombia. Strong winds will also pulse
in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. By Thu night, those SE winds will
become strong to near-gale force and spread across the
northwestern Caribbean through Fri. Moderate long-period N swell
will impact the northeastern Caribbean passages through this
weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning in place for the central Atlantic, the ongoing
significant swell event, and the cold front supporting these
marine conditions.

High pressure centered east of Bermuda is allowing for a
tightening pressure gradient between lower pressures over the SE
U.S. coast, supporting fresh to strong southerly winds north of
29N between 72W and the coast of Florida. Seas will build to 5
ft today in this region.

As mentioned above in the special features section, a cold front
is supporting hazardous marine conditions. This front is being
supported by a rather vigorous mid to upper-level trough.
Satellite imagery reveals scattered showers and thunderstorms
within 180 nm E of the front north of 27N. Outside of the strong
to gale force winds, ASCAT data found fresh N-NE winds behind
the front east of 65W. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the
cold front north of 24N and west of 40W.

Farther east, a frontal boundary is beginning to dissipate from
31N30W to 25N41W as a 1023 mb high pressure now dominates the
eastern Atl waters, centered just east of the Canary Islands.
Winds over the remainder of the basin are mainly moderate, with
moderate seas south of 20N. Seas are above 9 ft north of 20N
between 30W and 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front is forecast to exit
the U.S. southeast coast Fri night and track eastward. It will
bring S to SW winds at strong east of northern Florida and
moderate to fresh across northwest Bahamas Fri through Sat
morning. Afterward, fresh to strong SW winds will progress
eastward this weekend, remaining north of 29N as an east-west
oriented surface ridge settles along 24/25N.

$$
Mora
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