[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021026
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Mar 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front that extends from
31N43W to 25N65W will continue moving eastward across the central
Atlantic through Fri. Strong to near-gale force winds accompany
the front north of 27N between 37W and 50W. Gale force W winds
will prevail north of 29N between 42W and 45W through this
morning. NW swell will continue spreading behind the front.
Please see the paragraph below for details on wave heights.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Latest altimeter data
depicts seas over 12 ft, mainly north of 23N and east of 60W.
Seas are as high as 20 ft near 31N46W and were generated by a
complex low pressure located well to the north of the discussion
area. These conditions will prevail through Sun while drifting
east across the Central and East Atlantic.

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressure over
Colombia will support pulsing winds to minimal gale-force
tonight off the coast of Colombia. Seas will build to 11 or 12 ft
with the strongest winds. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over
the south-central Caribbean through Sun. These winds will expand
northward into the north-central basin today.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to move
off the Texas coast tonight. The front will reach near
Apalachicola, FL, to the central Bay of Campeche Fri evening
before stalling and weakening Fri night into early Sat. Near-
gale force S winds and rough seas will precede the front across
the northern Gulf tonight through Fri morning along with seas of
8-12 ft. Wind gusts are expected to reach gale-force through this
time period. Fresh to strong NW winds are expected behind the
front over the western Gulf, except for minimal gale force
offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico Fri. Seas are forecast to
build to 8-10 ft offshore Veracruz.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 12N17W and continues southwestward to 04N20W, where
the latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the
ITCZ. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 00N49W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 00N to 04N between 16W-50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please read
the Special Features section for more details.

High pressure extends from the western Atlantic to the central
Gulf. The associated anticyclonic wind flow is allowing for
generally moderate to fresh southerly winds across the basin.
Seas are in the range of 3-5 ft, except for slightly higher seas
of 6-8 ft within 150 nm offshore the northern Yucatan peninsula
in an area of stronger winds.

For the forecast, the above-mentioned high pressure will
continue to dominate the Gulf waters through tonight. Moist
southerly flow may favor the development of marine fog across
portions of the northern Gulf into early this morning. SE to S
winds will increase to fresh to strong today, ahead of a cold
front forecast to move off the Texas coast tonight. The front
will reach from Apalachicola, FL, to the central Bay of Campeche
Fri evening before stalling and weakening later Fri night into
early Sat. Near-gale force S winds, with frequent gusts to gale
force, will precede the front across the northern Gulf tonight
through Fri morning. Strong NW winds are expected behind the front
over the western Gulf, except for minimal gale force offshore
Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico Fri. Winds and seas should subside by
Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the offshore waters of Colombia.
Please read the Special Features section for more details.

The latest ASCAT data passes indicate fresh to strong trade
winds over the south-central Caribbean, Gulf of Honduras west of
84W, and within the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh winds
over the remainder of the Caribbean, except south of Cuba to 17N
between 76W and 81W, where gentle winds are noted. Seas are 7-10
ft over the south-central Caribbean and 4-6 ft elsewhere, except
6-8 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 1-3 ft in the lee of Cuba,
near the Cayman Islands, and also between Jamaica and eastern
Cuba.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the area and the Colombian diurnal low is supporting gale-force
NE winds currently off the coast of Colombia. These conditions
will end this morning, and pulse again Thu night. Strong to near-
gale SE winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun,
spreading across the northwestern Caribbean. Moderate long-
period N swell will impact the northeastern Caribbean passages
through this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning in place for the central Atlantic, the ongoing
significant swell event, and the cold front supporting these
marine conditions.

High pressure centered east of Bermuda is allowing for a tightening
pressure gradient between lower pressures over the SE U.S. coast,
supporting fresh southerly winds north of 29N between 72W and the
coast of Florida. Seas are expected to reach 6 ft in this region.

As mentioned above in the Special Features section, a cold front
is supporting hazardous marine conditions. This front is being
supported by a mid to upper-level trough. Satellite imagery
reveals scattered showers within 180 nm E of the front mainly north
of 25N. Outside of the strong to gale-force winds described above,
ASCAT data depicts fresh N-NE winds behind the front east of 60W.
Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the cold front north of 22N
and west of 38W.

Farther east, a 1023 mb high pressure dominates the eastern Atlc
waters, centered just east of the Canary Islands. Winds over the
remainder of the basin are mainly moderate, with moderate seas
south of 20N. Seas are above 9 ft north of 20N between 30W and
60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas generated by long-period
northerly swell will persist east of 66W through today. A cold
front is forecast to exit the U.S. southeast coast Fri night and
track eastward. It will bring S to SW winds at strong east of
northern Florida, and moderate to fresh across northwest Bahamas
Fri through Sat morning. Afterward, fresh to strong SW winds will
progress eastward this weekend, remaining north of 29N as an east-
west oriented surface ridge settles along 24/25N.

$$
ERA
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