[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Mar 02 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front that extends from
near 31N51W to 27N64W and to 31N76W will continue eastward
across the central Atlantic through Thu. Strong to near-gale
force W to NW winds will accompany the front north of 28N. Some
of these winds will reach minimal gale-force north of 30N between
40W-53W through early Thu morning. Additional pulses of NW swell
will follow the front. Please see the paragraph below for
details on wave heights.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Satellite altimeter
data from throughout the day showed seas in excess of 12 ft
mainly north of 26N and east of 55W. These seas reached as high
as 23 ft near 31N44W, and were generated by a complex low
pressure located well to the north of the discussion area. Seas
in excess of 8 ft are reaching the tropical Atlantic east of
about 58W. Expect seas in excess of 12 ft to be present north of
25N and east of 50W and north of 27N between 50W-62W tonight,
then north of 25N E of 57W on Thu. Seas will subside slightly
thereafter, but another round of NW swell can be expect Sat
through Sun north of 26N and E of 50W.

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and relatively lower pressure in northern S
America will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-
central Caribbean through Sat. These winds will expand northward
into the north-central basin on Thu. Pulsing winds to minimal
gale-force are expected tonight and Thu night off the coast of
Colombia. Seas will build to 11 or 12 ft with the strongest
winds.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to move
off the Texas coast Thu night. The front will reach from near
Apalachicola, FL to the central Bay of Campeche Fri evening
before stalling and weakening later Fri night into early Sat.
Near-gale force S winds and rough seas will precede the front
across the northern Gulf Thu evening through Fri morning along
with seas of 8-12 ft. Fresh to strong NW winds are expected
behind the front over the western Gulf, except for minimal gale
force offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico Fri. Seas are
forecast to build to 8-11 ft offshore Veracruz.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
the Atlantic swell event and on the Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 02N20W, where
latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the
ITCZ and continues to 01N30W to 02N40W and to 01N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen within 120 nm S of the ITCZ between
36W-42W and within 60 nm S of the ITCZ between 32W-36W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure extends from the western Atlantic to the central
Gulf. The associated anticyclonic wind flow is allowing for
generally moderate to fresh southerly winds across the basin.
Seas are in the range of 3-5 ft, except for slightly higher
seas of 5-6 ft from 22N to 26N between 87W-94W. Scattered low
clouds are seen on satellite imagery to be just inland the Gulf
coastal Plains. Some coastal locations are reporting scattered to
broken low and mid-level clouds. Scattered low clouds moving
northwestward with the southerly wind flow are over the Yucatan
Channel and waters north of there to near 27N and between
86W-89W.

For the forecast, the above mentioned high pressure will continue
to dominate the Gulf waters through tonight. Moist southerly
flow will favor the development of marine fog across portions of
the northern Gulf tonight into early Thu morning. SE to S winds
will increase to fresh to strong Thu, ahead of a cold front
forecast to move off the Texas coast Thu night. The front will
reach from Apalachicola, FL to the central Bay of Campeche Fri
evening before stalling and weakening later Fri night into early
Sat. Near-gale force S winds, with frequent gusts to gale force
will precede the front across the northern Gulf Thu evening
through Fri morning along with seas of 8-12 ft. Strong NW winds
are expected behind the front over the western Gulf, except for
minimal gale force offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico Fri.
Winds and seas should subside by Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the offshore waters of Colombia.
Please read the Special Features section for more details.

Latest ASCAT data passes indicate fresh to strong trade winds
over the south-central Caribbean and moderate to fresh winds
over the remainder of the central Caribbean and the SE part of
the basin, including the offshore waters of Venezuela E of 70W.
A couple of ships recently reported strong NE winds within
60 nm of the coast of Colombia between 72W-75W. Fresh to locally
strong SE winds are noted over the western Caribbean W of 85W,
including the Gulf of Honduras and the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to
moderate trade winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 7-10 ft over
the south-central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere, except 6-8 ft
in the Gulf of Honduras, and 1-3 ft in the lee of Cuba, near the
Cayman Islands and also between Jamaica and eastern Cuba.

Patches of low-level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow
are observed on satellite imagery moving westward across the
basin, roughly from 13N to 18N. Isolated to scattered showers
are possible with some of this moisture.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to
strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through Sat.
Pulsing winds to minimal gale-force are expected tonight and Thu
night off the coast of Colombia. Strong winds will pulse in the
Gulf of Honduras tonight. By Thu night, those SE winds will
become strong to near-gale force and spread across the
northwestern Caribbean through Fri. Moderate long-period N swell
will impact the northeastern Caribbean passages through this
weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about a
Gale Warning that is in place for the central Atlantic and
also about an ongoing significant swell event.

A cold front is analyzed from near 31N51W to 27N64W and to
31N76W. Latest available ASCAT data passes show strong to near
gale-force winds on either side of the front north of 28N
between 40W-59W. A ship recently reported SW winds of 25 kt
near the location of 30N42W. Earlier satellite altimeter data
showed seas of 12-20 ft ahead of the front to near north of 26N.
This front is being supported by a rather vigorous mid to upper-
level trough. Satellite imagery reveals scattered showers and
thunderstorms within 240 nm E of the front north of 28N and
within 120 nm southeast of the front from 26N to 28N. A
reinforcing cold front extends from a gale center of 991 mb that
is well north of the area near 36N51W, southwestward to 31N60W
and to near 30N64W. A partial ASCAT data pass from this afternoon
exhibited a wide swath of W to NW winds west to the northwest of
this front to near 59W. An eastern Atlantic cold front extends
from near 31N29W to 26N40W and becomes stationary to 23N50W.
Earlier satellite altimeter data showed seas of 14-23 ft in the
wake of the front, with the highest seas near 31N43W. Otherwise,
high pressure anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure located W of
the Canary Islands near 27N21W covers the eastern Atlantic region
E of the eastern Atlantic cold front, while high pressure over
the western Atlantic is anchored by high centers of 1020 mb near
28N79W and near 22N68W. A ridge axis extends from the high that
is near 28N79W westward into the central Gulf of Mexico and from
the high that is near 22N68W southeastward to near 18N57W. The
gradient related to these high centers is allowing for light to
gentle winds roughly SE of a line from 31N76W to 24N71W and to
18N57W. The exception is over the extreme southern waters S of
about 21N and between 69W-79W, where gentle to moderate E winds
are noted.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas generated by long-
period northerly swell will persist east of 63W through Thu.
A cold front extending from 28.5N55W to 27N63W to 29N73W will
progress eastward across the Atlantic waters through early this
evening, sustaining strong to near-gale westerly winds north of
27N and east of 60W through early this evening. Another cold
front is forecast to exit the southeastern U.S. coast Fri night
and track eastward. It will bring S to SW winds at strong to
near-gale force east of northern Florida, moderate to fresh
across northwest Bahamas Fri through Sat morning. Afterward,
fresh to strong SW winds will progress eastward this weekend,
remaining north of 29N as an east-west oriented surface ridge
settles along 24/25N.

$$
Aguirre
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