[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jun 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 27W from
03N to 12N, moving west around 5 to10 kts. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 24W and 29W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated based on
satellite imagery and diagnostics. The wave axis is now near 40W
from 03N to 12N.  No significant convection is associated with
the wave.

A western Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated based on
satellite imagery and diagnostics. The wave axis is now near 59W
from inland Guyana to 13N. Scattered moderate convection showers
are present within 150 nm S of 10N.

A Caribbean tropical wave has stalled and extends its axis near
80/81W from 05N and across Panama to 14N. Scattered moderate to
strong convection prevails S of 14N between
78W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W to 05N32W. The
ITCZ
continues westward from 05N32W to 05N39W, then resumes from
06N42W to 07N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
06N to 13N between the west coast of Africa and 20W. Similar
convection is noted within 150 nm of the ITCZ between 46W and
55W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge stretches westward from the west coast of
Florida to the west-central Gulf continues to dominate the
region. Fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are found
at the south- central Gulf, north of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Gentle to moderate southerly to southeasterly winds and 1 to 3
ft seas dominate the southeastern Gulf, including the Florida
Straits. Moderate to fresh ESE to S winds and seas and 3 to 5 ft
prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge across
the Gulf waters and low pressure over NE Mexico will support
moderate to fresh SE winds across the W Gulf today. Fresh winds
will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night through the
forecast period. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail.
Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies
over the SW Gulf for the next day or two.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
affecting the basin.

An upper-level trough is reflecting a pressure trough at the
surface over the Windward Passage continues to induce scattered
showers over eastern Cuba and Hispaniola, and nearby Caribbean
waters.

A broad Atlantic ridge associated with a 1023 mb high pressure
centered near 28N57W continues to support a trade-wind regime
across the basin, except for monsoonal winds near Panama and
Costa Rica. Latest scatterometer and altimeter data reveal strong
to near-gale easterly winds associated with the east Pacific
Monsoon trough offshore Panama and Costa Rica where seas are up to
6 ft. An area of strong winds is over the central Caribbean from
12N to 16N between 68W and 75W where seas are 6 to 9 ft.
Elsewhere, over the eastern and central Caribbean fresh to strong
winds and seas of 5 yo 7 ft seas prevail. Gentle to moderate ESE
winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail south of Cuba and the Windward
Passage.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to strong E
trades across most of the central Caribbean through Mon. Near
gale-force winds are expected to pulse at nighttime in the Gulf of
Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia through Fri night. Fresh
to strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at
night, through Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
affecting the basin.

A mid to upper level trough is supporting clusters of showers
and thunderstorms northeast of the Bahamas mainly north of 25N
between 63W and 72W. A pressure gradient between a ridge of 1023
mb centered near 28N55W and low pressure over the eastern U.S.
supports fresh to strong S-SW winds north of 28N and W of 68W. No
significant convection or seas are associated with these winds. The
pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and
the low pressure in the deep tropics is supporting a large area of
moderate to fresh winds S of 20N and W of 45W, where seas are 6
to 8 ft. Elsewhere, the high pressure is dominating the weather
pattern allowing moderate winds to prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft
across the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W,  fresh to strong winds are expected
north of 30N and west of 70W through Fri night. Elsewhere, gentle
to moderate winds will generally prevail for the next few days.

$$
CTM/KRV
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