[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jun 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 26W from
12N southward, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 22W and 27W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 44W from
11N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted along 06N.

A western Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 61W from
05N-13N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are
present S of 09N.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis near 81W from 14N
southward across Panama into the East Pacific, moving west at
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails S of 14N between
79W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W to 06N29W. The ITCZ
continues westward from 06N29W to 05N42W, then resumes from
06N45W to 07N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N
to 09N between 44W and 58W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
numerous showers and thunderstorms over northern Colombia, Panama,
and Nicaragua.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An outflow boundary is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the NE Gulf waters mainly N of 27N and E of 84W. Elsewhere,
a broad surface ridge stretching westward from central Florida to
the west-central Gulf continues to dominate the region. Fresh to
strong SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found at the south-
central Gulf, north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate southerly
winds and 1 to 3 ft seas dominate the southeastern Gulf, including
the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh ESE to S winds and seas at
3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across
the Gulf waters and low pressure over NE Mexico will continue to
support moderate to fresh SE winds across the W Gulf through Thu.
Fresh to strong SE winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula will
weaken by Thu morning, then fresh winds will pulse each night
through the forecast period. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
will prevail. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will
continue to produce hazy skies over the SW Gulf for the next few
days.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
affecting the basin.

An upper-level trough over the northwestern portion of the basin
continues to induce scattered showers over eastern Cuba and
western Hispaniola, and nearby Caribbean waters.

A broad Atlantic ridge associated with a 1022 mb high pressure
centered near 27N58W continues to support a trade-wind regime
across the basin, except for monsoonal winds near Panama and Costa
Rica. Latest scatterometer and altimeter data reveal strong to
near-gale easterly winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft at the south-
central basin, just north of Colombia. Fresh to strong ESE winds
and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to
moderate ESE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail south of Cuba
and the Windward Passage. Gentle monsoonal winds with 3 to 5 ft
seas in trade-wind swell are found offshore Panama and Costa Rica.
Fresh E to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in
the basin.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda
High and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades
across most of the central Caribbean through Mon. Near gale-force
winds are expected to pulse at nighttime in the Gulf of Venezuela
and near the coast of Colombia through Fri night, then fresh to
strong winds will pulse each night through the weekend. Fresh to
strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at
night, through Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
affecting the basin.

An outflow boundary is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the western Atlantic mainly W of 75W. An upper-level trough
over the western Atlantic continues to spark scattered showers
from the southeast Bahamas northward between 63W-72W. A 1022 mb
high is centered near 27N58W. To the east, a surface trough
extends from 30N28W to 22N41W.

Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are
impacting waters east of Florida N of 27N between 65W and the
Georgia-Florida coast. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 6
ft seas are noted from 19N to 25N between 52W and the southeast
Bahamas/Greater Antilles. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6
ft in mixed northerly/southerly swells N of 19N/20N between 20W
and the northwest/central Bahamas. Near the Canary Islands,
moderate to fresh NNE trades and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate north of
20N between the northwest Africa coast and 20W. Farther south,
gentle to moderate N to NNE trades and seas at 3 to 5 ft are
evident from 08N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 35W.
To the west, moderate to fresh NE to E trades with 5 to 7 ft seas
are seen from 06N to 19N/20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles.
Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
in southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic
Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda High will continue
supporting gentle to moderate winds during the next several days
south of 29N. North of 30N and west of 70W, fresh to strong SW
winds are expected through Fri night.

$$
ERA
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