[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152217
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jun 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave is analyzed along the African coast along 16W
from 06N to 13N. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N
to 12N E of 22W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 29W from
03N to 12N, moving west around 10 kts. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 24W and 29W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is noted near 42W from 03N to
12N. Scattered moderate convection has developed from 05N to 08N
between 41W and 45W.

A tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles has an axis along
61W from 13N S to the Guyana-Venezuela border. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 120 nm of the axis, S of 10N.

A nearly stationary tropical wave resides along 82W from 14N
southward across Panama and into the far eastern Pacific.
Scattered moderate to strong convection prevails S of 13N between
78W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W to 05N37W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N43W to 07N57W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, described above in the
Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted
within 150 nm of the ITCZ between 46W and 55W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge stretching westward from the west coast of
Florida to the west-central Gulf continues to dominate the region.
Fresh SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are found at the south-
central Gulf, north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle southerly
to southeasterly winds and 1 to 3 ft seas dominate the
southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Moderate to
fresh mainly S winds and seas and 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest
of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan
peninsula each night through the forecast period. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds will prevail. Smoke from agricultural
fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies over the SW Gulf for the
next day or two.


...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
affecting the basin.

A mid and upper level low pressure trough in the vicinity of the
Windward Passage is inducing scattered moderate convection over
eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and adjacent Caribbean waters.

A broad Atlantic ridge associated with a 1023 mb high pressure
centered near 28N57W continues to support a trade-wind regime
across the basin, except for monsoonal winds near Panama and
Costa Rica. Strong to near gale force easterly winds are just N of
the eastward extension of the east Pacific monsoon trough offshore
Colombia. These strong winds continue N and W across the central
Caribbean and offshore Venezuela. Seas in these areas of strong
winds are 7 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, over the eastern and central
Caribbean fresh to strong winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail.
An area of fresh to strong winds is also noted in and near the
Gulf of Honduras, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. For the remainder of the
waters in the western Caribbean, winds are moderate to fresh with
seas of 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and
the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades across
most of the central Caribbean through Mon. Near gale-force winds
are expected to pulse at nighttime in the Gulf of Venezuela and
near the coast of Colombia through Fri night. Fresh to strong E
winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night,
through Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
affecting the basin.

A deep layer trough that extends from near Bermuda to the Turks
and Caicos is supporting scattered moderate convection N of 25N
between 63W and 72W. A pressure gradient between a ridge of 1023
mb centered near 28N56W and low pressure over the eastern U.S.
supports fresh S-SW winds north of 28N and W of 68W. The
pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and the
low pressure in the deep tropics is supporting a large area of
moderate to fresh winds S of 20N and W of 45W, where seas are 5 to
7 ft. Elsewhere, the high pressure is dominating the weather
pattern allowing moderate winds to prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft
across the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure centered near 27N57W
extends a ridge WSW to the northern Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds
are expected north of 30N and west of 70W through Fri night.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will generally prevail for the
next few days.

$$
KONARIK
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