[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252340
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jan 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:
High pressure north of the Caribbean combined with low pressure
over N South America is forcing strong NE to E trades over the S
central Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the E and
central Caribbean. The pressure gradient tightens beginning Thu
night forcing near gale to minimal gale-force winds mainly late
night and early morning hours near the coast of Colombia. Seas
should reach around 12 ft over and westward of these gale force
winds. Pulsing gale conditions should continue through Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:
A 1007 mb low is centered near 24N36W with a cold front extending
from near the center to 21N38W to 23N43W. While winds currently
are only peaking at fresh northerlies west of the center and
strong easterlies northeast of the center, large N swell is
occurring north of 20N between 35N-45W. A cold front approaching
the low from the west will strengthen the NE winds west of the
center and build a large area of 8-12 ft seas north of 20N and
east of 60W on Thu and Fri. Also on Fri, a building high
northeast of the low will help force minimal gale force SE winds
near 30N35W with seas reaching near 15 ft. Winds and seas should
steadily diminish on Sat.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information
about both warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 01N17W. The ITCZ continues from 01N17W to 03S40W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted south of 06N
between 08W-25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle
near 30N85W southwestward to the Bay of Campeche near 08N94W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along and ahead of the
front north of 25N. Winds ahead of the front are only moderate to
fresh southwesterlies, but are strong to near gale NW to N winds
behind the front. Seas are 6-11 ft behind the front. The highest
winds and seas are in the Bay of Campeche and ship 9V328 reported
40 kt NW earlier today just offshore of Veracruz.

For the forecast, the front will reach from from Tampa Bay, FL to
the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, and exit the basin early Thu
afternoon. Near-gale force north winds offshore Veracruz will
diminish to fresh to strong late tonight. Elsewhere, winds and
seas will gradually improve by Fri. Fresh to locally strong
southerly return flow will set-up this weekend in the NW Gulf in
response to the next cold front that will be approaching the NW
Gulf. This front is expected to move into the far northern Gulf
Sun and Sun night, and stall through Mon night. Fresh to strong
east winds will surge from the southwestern Atlantic through the
Straits of Florida and into the far southeastern Gulf Sat and Sat
night and diminish Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about
the Gale-force Wind Warning that was issued for the S central
Caribbean Sea.

High pressure north of the Caribbean combined with low pressure
over N South America is forcing strong NE to E trades over the S
central Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the E and
central Caribbean. Seas are 7-10 ft in the central and SW
Caribbean, 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean, and 4-7 ft in the E
Caribbean. No deep convection is occurring over the Caribbean
today.

For the forecast aside from the S Central Caribbean gale, fresh
to locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras through
this evening. A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel area
on Thu, enter the northwestern Caribbean Thu night through early
Fri, then stall and dissipate. Strong northeast to east winds are
expected to affect the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba Sat
through late Sun. Similar winds continue in the Windward Passage
Mon and Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about
the Atlantic Ocean Gale-force Wind Warning.

A 1007 mb low is centered near 24N36W with a cold front extending
from near the center to 21N38W to 23N43W. While winds currently
are only peaking at fresh northerlies west of the center and
strong easterlies northeast of the center, large N swell is
occurring north of 20N between 35N-45W. Another associated
boundary is an occluded front from 30N35W to 28N28W transitioning
to a cold front extending to 15N56W. Strong NE to E winds are
observed north of 25N east of 30W with seas 8-12 ft. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north of 25N
between 25W-33W. Another cold front extends from 31N48W to 27N69W,
then transitioning to a trough to 27N76W. Fresh to strong N to NE
winds are behind the front with seas 8-10 ft. Scattered moderate
convection is observed north of 28N between 42W-47W. Finally,
fresh to strong S winds are occurring east of the N Florida
peninsula with seas to 8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the westernmost front will shift
southeast of the area early Thu. Fresh to strong southerly flow
will continue tonight off northern and central Florida ahead of a
strong cold front that will move off the southeastern U.S. coast
on this evening. This front is expected to reach from near 31N74W
to the NW Bahamas to the Straits of Florida Thu afternoon, then
weaken as it reaches from near 31N69W to 26N75W to central Cuba
early Fri, and from near 31N61W to 25N70W and becoming stationary
to central Cuba by Sat afternoon. A tight gradient will create
fresh to strong northeast to east winds and building seas within
about 180 NM north of the stationary front late Fri night through
early Sun, especially over the Bahamas, Windward Passage and
Straits of Florida. Conditions improve late on Sun into Sun night.
A cold front may move off northeast Florida early next week.

$$
Landsea
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net