[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jan 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

A cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the
central sections of the Gulf of Mexico, into the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico, at the coast of Mexico near 18.5N96W.
Precipitation: scattered strong is from 29N northward from 85W
eastward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and other
possible rainshowers, are to the northwest of the line that
passes through 29N81W 29N85W 24N90W, to the northern part of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The latest values for
the sea heights are ranges from 7 feet to 9 feet in the central
ections of the Gulf of Mexico, and from 7 feet to 9 feet to the
northwest of the cold front. The sea heights range from 4 feet
to 6 feet from 90W eastward to the east of the cold front.

The forecast consists of: NW gale-force winds, and sea heights
that range from 9 feet to 12 feet, from 20N southward from the
cold front westward, and including within 60 nm of the coast of
Veracruz in Mexico. Expect NW-N winds from 20 knots to 25 knots,
elsewhere from the cold front westward, except from 24N
southward the wind speeds will range from 25 knots to 30 knots.
The sea heights will range from 6 feet to 8 feet, except from
24N southward with sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet.
The gale-force winds are forecast to end at the sunset of today.

CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

The forecast for 27 January at 03z consists of: gale-force NE-to-
E winds, and sea heights that range from 9 feet to 12 feet, from
11N to 12N between 73W AND 75W, along the coast of Colombia. NW
Caribbean Sea hight pressure, and comparatively lower surface
pressures in Colombia and Panama, will continue to support
pulsing winds to gale-force in the south central Caribbean Sea
during the next several days, mainly from the nighttime hours
until sunrise each morning. The sea heights will build to around
13 feet during the period of the gale-force winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information about both of the above warnings.

EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SWELL:

A 1008 mb low pressure is near 27N34W. An occluded front curves
away from the 1008 mb low pressure center, to a 28N28W triple
point. A warm front extends from the triple point to 29N24W. A
cold front extends from the triple point to 22N30W 15N40W 14N50W
15N65W. A second cold front curves away from the 1008 mb low
pressure center, to 26N31W 23N36W 24N43W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 23N northward
between 24W and 34W. Near gale-force winds are from 240 nm and
beyond, away from the 1008 mb low pressure center, in the NE
quadrant. Strong to near gale-force are from 300 nm away from
the center in the SE quadrant. Fresh to strong winds are from
20N northward between the 1008 mb low pressure center and 50W,
and elsewhere from 20N northward from the 1008 mb low pressure
center eastward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 12 feet
within at least a 600 nm radius of the 1008 mb low pressure
center. The comparatively highest sea heights are within 300 nm
of the center in the E quadrant, and within 360 nm of the center
in the NW quadrant. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 9 feet
from 29N northward from 20W eastward. The sea heights for the
remainder of the area that is to the north of the first cold
front range from 4 feet to 7 feet, and in the remainder of the
area that is from 50W eastward, also ranging from 4 feet to 7
feet.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 05N09W, to the Equator along 12W, to 01N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 01N17W ,to 03N24W, to the Equator along 28W, to
04S36W and 03S40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 10N southward from 30W eastward.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the
area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
Gale-force Wind Warning that was issued for the Gulf of Mexico,
the current cold front and related precipitation, and the
conditions for the wind speeds and the sea heights.

A cold front extends from the far western Florida Panhandle
southwestward to 26N90W and to the Bay of Campeche near 10N96W.
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms with frequent lightning
and gusty winds is ahead of the front, north of 27N. These
storms will continue eastward across the Gulf as the front
reaches from Tampa Bay, FL to the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, and
exits the basin from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan
Channel by midday Thu. Gale-force winds offshore Veracruz will
diminish to near gale-force early this evening. Winds and seas
will gradually improve by Fri. Fresh to locally strong southerly
return flow will set-up this weekend in the far western Gulf in
response to the next cold front that will be approaching the NW
Gulf. Fresh to strong east winds will surge from the
southwestern Atlantic through the Straits of Florida and into
the far southeastern Gulf Sat and Sat night. These conditions
will improve late on Sun into Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information
about the Gale-force Wind Warning that was issued for the south
central Caribbean Sea, off the coast of northern Colombia.

Strong to near gale-force winds have been off the coast of
Colombia. Strong winds have been elsewhere in the central
sections of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights have been ranging
from 8 feet to 12 feet in the central sections of the Caribbean
Sea. Those heights have been spreading southwestward as NE
swell, into the SW Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong winds
have been the Windward Passage, and in the Gulf of Honduras
northward to the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh trade winds
have been elsewhere. The sea heights have been ranging from 5
feet to 8 feet in the eastern Caribbean Sea. The sea heights
have been ranging from 4 feet to 7 feet in the remainder of the
area. The exception has been for ranges of 6 feet to 8 feet in
the Gulf of Honduras.

Strong trade winds will continue over the south central
Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere in the eastern and
central Caribbean through the forecast period. Near gale to
minimal gale-force winds will pulse at night near the coast of
Colombia during the majority of the forecast period. Fresh to
locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras through
this evening. A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel
area on Thu, enter the northwestern Caribbean Thu night through
early Fri, then stall and dissipate. Strong northeast to east
winds are expected to affect the Windward Passage and Lee of
Cuba Sat through early Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
the eastern Atlantic Ocean 1008 mb low pressure center, the
related frontal boundaries and nearby precipitation, and the
wind speeds and the sea heights/swell that also surround the
area of the 1008 mb low pressure center.

A cold front extends from 31N49W to 27N60W. A dissipating
stationary front continues from 27N60W to 28N75W. Fresh N winds
are within 240 nm to the NW of the front. The sea heights range
from 7 feet to 9 feet behind the front to 68W. The sea heights
range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere from 60W westward. Fresh
to locally strong trade winds have been near the Windward
Passage. Fresh to strong SE to S winds have been offshore
northern Florida.

A cold front extends from near 31N49W to 25N63W.
Moderate to fresh winds are northwest of the front. The front
will reach from near 25N55W to 24N62W this evening before
dissipating tonight. Fresh to strong southerly flow will develop
this morning off northern and central Florida ahead of a strong
cold front that will move off the southeastern U.S. coast on
this evening. This front is expected to reach from near 31N74W
to the NW Bahamas to the Straits of Florida Thu afternoon, then
weaken as it reaches from near 31N69W to 26N75W to central Cuba
early Fri, and from near 31N61W to 25N70W and becoming
stationary to central Cuba by Sat afternoon. A line of scattered
showers and thunderstorms, some possibly with strong gusty
winds, will precede the front east of Florida tonight into Thu.
A tight gradient will create fresh to strong northeast to east
winds and building seas within about 180 nm north of the
stationary front late Fri night through early Sun, especially
over the Bahamas, Windward Passage and Straits of Florida.
Conditions improve late on Sun into Sun night.

$$
MT/JA
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