[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251116
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jan 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning: A cold front extends from Mobile, AL
to Veracruz, Mexico as of 0900 UTC. A pre-frontal squall line is
oriented from just W of Destin, FL to 27N90W as of 1000 UTC.
Sustained winds of 25-35 kt with a few gusts as high as 50 kt are
possible within 60 nm of the western Florida Panhandle through
1200 UTC this morning, within the thunderstorm activity. Then, a
Gale Warning will continue through the day today within 60 nm of
the Florida Panhandle for sustained winds of 20 to 30 kt with
frequent gusts to 35 kt. Seas of 8-13 ft will continue through
today in the area. Gale-force NW to N winds are leaving the
Tampico area and are now beginning offshore Veracruz. Expect the
gales to continue offshore Veracruz through today with seas
building to 8-12 ft. Gales will diminish there this evening.
Conditions will continue to gradually improve into Thu as the cold
front shifts SE of the area.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure over the NW Caribbean
combined with low pressure over northern Colombia and Panama will
continue to support pulsing winds to gale-force in the south
central Caribbean Sea during the next several days, mainly at
night until around sunrise each morning. The sea heights will
build to around 13 feet during the period of the gale-force winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information about both of the above warnings.

East Atlantic Swell: 1007 mb low pressure is in the Atlantic near
27N37W. An occluded front wraps around the low to north of 31N
with a cold front extending from a triple point at 28N29W through
17N40W then weakening from there to 16N50W. A few troughs are
rotating around the low as well per earlier ASCAT scatterometer
data. Strong to near-gale force winds are occurring well NE of
the low, as well as to the west of the low from about 23N to 28N
and east of 44.5W to the low. Fresh winds surround this area from
about 20N to 31N between 37W and 48W. Very large and dangerous
seas accompany the winds, and there is also a large N swell. Peak
seas are currently 16 ft near 25N40W. Seas of 12 ft or greater
cover the area from 21N to 31N between 28W and 45W. The
significant wave heights should diminish below 12 ft tonight
across the discussion waters. However, an eastward moving cold
front, currently situated from 31N52W to 27N63W will approach the
low pressure, causing winds and seas to increase again Thu through
Fri north of 25N between 25W and 53W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 07N11W to 01N22W. The ITCZ continues from 01N22W to 00N26W,
then continues W of a surface trough from 00N30W to 03S42W. A
surface trough extending from 07N26W to 00N28W splits the ITCZ.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 05W
and 17W, and within 180 nm of the coast of Brazil from 05S to 01N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about a
Storm Warning in the Gulf of Mexico, as well as associated Gale
Warnings.

Other than the conditions mentioned in the Special Features
section, fresh SE-S winds dominate the SE Gulf south of 25N and
east of the front. Strong to near-gale winds are occurring north
of 25N and east of the front. Over the NW Gulf, NW winds are
starting to gradually diminish, but are still fresh to strong.
Near-gale to gale N winds are behind the front in the far west-
central and SW Gulf. Seas in the N Gulf are 8-12 ft and 8-10 ft in
the west-central and SW Gulf, and will build to 12 ft off Veracruz
today. Seas are 5-8 ft in the SE to south-central Gulf.

For the forecast, the line of strong to severe thunderstorms with
frequent lightning and gusty winds ahead of the front will
continue eastward across the Gulf as the front reaches from Tampa
Bay, FL to the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, and exits the basin from
the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Channel by midday Thu. Winds
and seas will gradually improve by Fri. Fresh to locally strong
southerly return flow will set-up this weekend in the far western
Gulf in response to the next cold front that will be approaching
the NW Gulf. Fresh to strong east winds will surge from the
southwestern Atlantic through the Straits of Florida and into the
far southeastern Gulf Sat and Sat night. These conditions will
improve late on Sun into Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean offshore northern Colombia.

Strong winds are occurring in the central Caribbean, locally near
gale-force offshore northern Colombia. Seas are 8-12 ft across
this area, spreading southwest as NE swell to the SW Caribbean.
Fresh to locally strong winds are near the Windward Passage, as
well as in the Gulf of Honduras northward to the Yucatan Channel.
Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. Seas are 5-8 ft in
the eastern Caribbean, and 4-7 ft across the remainder of the
area, except 6 to 8 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. Some isolated
thunderstorms are in the coastal waters of Costa Rica.

For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the
south-central Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the
eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period. Near
gale to minimal gale-force winds will pulse at night near the
coast of Colombia during the majority of the forecast period.
Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras
through this evening. A cold front will approach the Yucatan
Channel area on Thu, enter the northwestern Caribbean Thu night
through early Fri, then stall and dissipate. Strong northeast to
east winds are expected to affect the Windward Passage and Lee of
Cuba Sat through early Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details about
features, winds and seas between 20W and 50W, from 15N to 31N.

A cold front extends from 31N52W to 27N63W. Fresh N winds prevail
within 240 nm NW of the front. Seas of 7-9 ft are behind the
front to 68W. Elsewhere west of 60W, seas are 4-6 ft. A 1021 mb
high pressure is centered near 25N57W. Fresh to locally strong
trades are near the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong SE to S
winds are offshore northern Florida. Offshore Morocco in the far
NE Atlantic, strong to near gale force N winds prevail along with
seas 8-11 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front from near 31N52W to
26N63W will extend from 25N55W to 24N62W this evening before
moving E of the area tonight. Fresh to strong southerly flow will
develop this morning off northern and central Florida ahead of a
strong cold front that will move off the southeastern U.S. coast
on this evening. This front is expected to reach from near 31N74W
to the NW Bahamas to the Straits of Florida Thu afternoon, then
weaken as it reaches from near 31N69W to 26N75W to central Cuba
early Fri, and from near 31N61W to 25N70W and becomes stationary
to central Cuba by Sat afternoon. A line of scattered showers and
thunderstorms will precede the front east of Florida tonight into
Thu. A tight gradient will create fresh to strong northeast to
east winds and building seas within about 180 nm north of the
stationary front late Fri night through early Sun, especially over
the Bahamas, Windward Passage and Straits of Florida. Conditions
improve late on Sun into Sun night.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net